I've got some Sunday Night Football long-shot picks for Week 3 with a potentially juicy return for a game between the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium that won’t be as close as many think.
These are my three Rams vs. Broncos predictions, with the biggest return coming from putting them into a combo. Don't forget to check out our NFL picks page on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Sunday Night Football long-shot picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Terrance Ferguson 70+ receiving yards |
29% |
| Blake Corum 70+ rushing yards |
23% |
| Rams -9.5 |
18% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Pick #1: Terrance Ferguson 70+ receiving yards
Without Puka Nacua, this Los Angeles Rams offense is going to have to work a little differently. The main benefactor of that will be Terrance Ferguson.
He had just one target in Week 1 but saw a huge leap to nine targets against the Giants last Monday. He caught six of those for 54 yards and a touchdown. He ran routes on 66.7% of the team’s dropbacks and had a 24% first-read rate.
We saw Travis Kelce average 23.7 yards per catch against this Denver Broncos defense in Week 1, and with Patrick Surtain keeping himself busy with Davante Adams, it should open up space for Ferguson to be more involved.
No other Rams player got more than two targets from Matthew Stafford last week.
Pick #2: Blake Corum 70+ rushing yards
The Rams backfield has been a real two-headed beast to start the season, with Kyren Williams registering 23 carries to Blake Corum’s 22. Both have been efficient to start the season, and both have the potential to have a big Sunday night against a Broncos defensive that ranks 32nd in opponent rush EPA.
We’ve seen Kenneth Walker III put up monster numbers against them, while even the Jaguars saw some success. While Williams gets the high-value carries, with six to Corum’s zero in the red zone, it’s Corum’s ability to break tackles that makes me interested in taking this large rushing yard line.
Last week, he had one more missed tackle forced than Williams (5-4), and managed a respectable 27 rush yards over expected.
Pick #3: Rams -9.5
Heading into the season, I felt like the Rams were the best team in football. I was stunned in Week 1 when they lost convincingly to the 49ers, but at this stage, I’m happy to think that was largely down to the way they traveled to Australia so late.
I’m not sold on the Broncos run game, with JK Dobbins looking slow.
There’s no Myles Garrett, but the Rams still have the tools to get after Bo Nix, who has a terrible -1.18 EPA when under pressure. That’s the worst of any starting QB in the NFL, and if Aaron Donald & Co. can pressure him, then Nix should give up turnovers, just as he has in each game this season.
I’m also bullish on Trent McDuffie being able to limit Jaylen Waddle’s explosive plays. The Chiefs managed to pull away from the Broncos in Week 1, eventually winning by 21 points, and I can see a superior Rams team doing the same and winning by double-digits.
Week 3 SNF long-shot combo
Terrance Ferguson 70+ receiving yards
Blake Corum 70+ rushing yards
Rams -9.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
