Thursday Night Football is here for Week 4, and our Steelers vs. Browns expert picks run the gauntlet to bring you the best NFL picks for this prime-time divisional clash.
Deshaun Watson will get the job done through the air, while the Pittsburgh Steelers tight end tandem will do damage up the middle against the Cleveland Browns on Thursday, Oct. 1.
Steelers vs Browns expert picks
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| Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Darnell Washington 15+ rec yds |
55% |
 Josh Inglis: Deshaun Watson 2+ pass TDs |
29% |
 Joe Osborne: PIT -2.5 |
53% |
 Jon Metler: Pat Freiermuth TD |
21% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Darnell Washington 15+ receiving yards
Price: 55% at Kalshi
When asked what goes through his head when massive tight end Darnell Washington catches the ball, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy said, "Why don’t you give him the ball more?"
Washington saw his snap share spike versus Cincinnati last week, and he reeled in three of four passes his way for 67 yards.
The Cleveland Browns have already had a tough time with rival tight ends this season, and those guys aren’t 6-foot-7 and 260 pounds. My projections for "Mount Washington" sit at 19 yards on Thursday Night Football.
Jason Logan has more player predictions for Thursday Night Football in his Steelers vs. Browns props.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Deshaun Watson 2+ passing touchdowns
Price: 29% at Kalshi
If I'm picking Deshaun Watson in a prime-time divisional game, I want a high price, and 2+ passing TDs at 3.5x is something that should be closer to 3x.
The Cleveland quarterback has tossed a pair of scores in back-to-back games and gets a home matchup against a Pittsburgh defense missing corner Joey Porter Jr., while starting safety Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a wrist injury. Depth defensive back Brandin Echols is also questionable.
It's a good unit to pass against for Watson, who might be in a lot of passing downs with the injuries to his starting center and left guard. The Cleveland offense will need the passing game, as the run game ranks 31st in EPA/rush, ahead of only the Packers.
Watson has thrown two touchdowns in each of his last two games, but the matchup and price are what make this interesting.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Steelers -2.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy know how to handle a short week. Rodgers is 13-6 straight up, and 13-5-1 against the spread in Thursday starts, while McCarthy went 7-3 SU on Thursdays with Dallas.
That preparation edge matters against Watson, who hasn't played on a Thursday since 2020, and first-year head coach Todd Monken.
Pittsburgh also found its offensive groove against Cincinnati, scoring 30 points while averaging 7.0 yards per play. Cleveland has won two straight, but lost the yards-per-play battle in both victories.
For a deeper dive, Joe Osborne breaks down all of the Xs and Os in his Steelers vs. Browns predictions.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Pat Freiermuth anytime TD
Price: 21% at Kalshi
Give me Pat Freiermuth at 21% to score a touchdown, as I price him closer to 27% to find the end zone.
The strength of this Browns defense is Denzel Ward on the outside, taking away throws to the boundary. Rodgers is a cerebral quarterback, so why force the ball into tight windows against one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL when he can work the middle of the field and attack these Browns linebackers as they try to cover Freiermuth?
I don't think Cleveland has a hybrid defender who can match the 6-foot-5 Freiermuth on a jump ball while also having the athleticism to keep up with him in coverage near the goal line.
For more scoring plays, check out Kyle LaRusic's favorite Steelers vs. Browns touchdown predictions.
How to watch Steelers vs Browns
| Location | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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