The Pittsburgh Steelers head west to face the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh is half a game ahead of Baltimore in the AFC North standings and my Steelers vs. Bengals predictions are betting on the visitors to cover as short underdogs in this Week 13 clash.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this divisional showdown on December 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EST from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, with the game airing on CBS.
Steelers vs Bengals prediction
Who will win?
Although the Bengals are better than their 4-7 record suggests, the 8-3 Steelers are built for cold-weather games.
They also do a great job of performing on the road in divisional showdowns and have won in their last two trips to Cincy. The Steelers can certainly grind out another win here.
My best bet
Steelers +3 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals may be fresh off a bye and desperate for a win, but it's tough to turn down the Pittsburgh Steelers catching a field goal. The Steelers currently lead the division at 8-3, and while they've faced the second-weakest schedule in the league, the Bengals rank just 25th in strength of schedule themselves.
Against teams that are currently .500 or better, the Bengals have gone 0-6 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Steelers have faced only three teams currently with winning records (the Chargers, Commanders, and Ravens), but picked up victories in all three of those contests.
Thanks to star quarterback Joe Burrow, the Bengals have an explosive aerial attack. However, their offense has been one-dimensional and ranks just 30th in rush success rate.
Cincinnati's offensive line is 26th in the NFL in pass block win rate while ranking dead-last in run block win rate. That unit will have its hands full against a Pittsburgh stop unit that is fifth in the league in defensive EPA and pass rush win rate.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals are 29th in the league in defensive EPA and 31st in defensive rush success rate. Not being able to run the ball or stop the run is a terrible combination in what will be a cold-weather game this Sunday.
Steelers vs Bengals same-game parlay
Steelers alternate spread +3.5
Jaylen Warren Over 39.5 rushing yards
Under 48
Jaylen Warren has rushed for more than 40 yards in five straight games and he had 11 carries for 45 yards last week against a tough Browns front. He has a more favorable matchup this week against a Cincy D that struggles against the run and could be missing middle linebacker Logan Wilson.
The Steelers are third in the league in scoring defense (16.9 ppg) but their offense is just 27th in success rate and has been heavily reliant on big plays. I expect them to run the ball to control the clock and keep Burrow off the field, which has me leaning toward the Under 48.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Steelers vs Bengals odds
Steelers vs Bengals live odds
Steelers vs Bengals opening odds
- Spread: Pittsburgh +2.5 | Cincinnati -2.5
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +125 | Cincinnati -150
- Over/Under: Over 47 | Under 47
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Steelers vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money came in on the Bengals and the Over, shifting the spread to that key number of -3 and moving the total to 48.
- The Steelers lost to the Browns on TNF last week but had gone 5-0 SU and ATS in their previous five games.
- The Bengals are fresh off a bye week and are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four contests.
- The Steelers are 19th in the league in EPA/play and 30th in offensive success rate since Russell Wilson took over at QB in Week 7.
- 58% of Covers Consensus users are backing Cincinnati on the spread, while 51% are taking the Under.
Steelers vs Bengals betting trend to know
Since 2015, Pittsburgh is 28-17-2 ATS as road underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Bengals.
Steelers vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-1, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Steelers vs Bengals latest injuries
Steelers vs Bengals weather
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