Seahawks vs Saints Week 5 Picks and Predictions: Geno Continues to Prove Doubters Wrong

One of the biggest surprises through the first month of the 2022 season has been the superb play coming from Geno Smith. That includes last week, with his 369-yard and three-touchdown performance in a 48-45 win over the Detroit Lions to help improve the Seattle Seahawks record to 2-2.

Geno and company will stay on the road in Week 5 as they travel to face the New Orleans Saints (1-3), who are losers of three straight. The Saints have struggled amidst some untimely injuries on offense, including Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara — with the first two tracking to miss Sunday's game.

Can the shorthanded Saints reverse their luck and snap their losing streak, or will Geno Smith continue to prove the doubters wrong and lift the Seahawks above .500?

Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Seahawks vs. Saints on Sunday, October 9.

Seahawks vs Saints best odds

Seahawks vs Saints picks and predictions

The NFL is always full of surprises from season to season, and the Week 5 matchup between the Seahawks and Saints is a perfect example of that. After years of rumblings that Russell Wilson wanted out, Seattle finally bit the bullet and handed over the keys to the offense to longtime backup Geno Smith.

Expectations were beyond low, with many predicting a rough season for Pete Carroll's group. Instead, Smith has been one of the league's better quarterbacks through the first month, while Wilson has fallen flat in the meantime.

Geno's 77.3% completion percentage is the best in the league. It's also not a product of taking easy shots, as his yards per attempt (7.9) rank fourth. He has also displayed excellent pocket presence, with just four quarterbacks (with four starts) taking fewer sacks than Geno's six. That doesn't bode well for an underperforming Saints' defense that has generated just seven sacks through four weeks, tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. This comes after ranking sixth in adjusted sack rate last year and fourth in 2020.

On the other side of the matchup, the Saints will be bringing in a hobbled offense to try and snap their three-game losing streak. Although it looks like they will get Kamara back after his Week 4 absence, both Winston and Thomas missed Wednesday and Thursday's practice, putting their availability for Sunday in a dire spot.

If Winston were to sit out Week 5 as well, Andy Dalton would see another spot start after putting up an amicable performance in London last week. He finished completing 20/28 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown, helping put together a late drive to help tie up the game with 1:51 left before the Vikings answered with a late field goal of their own.

However, New Orleans hasn't had much gas as a whole on offense through four weeks, no matter which way you slice it. The Saints rank 22nd in yards per drive, 25th in points per drive, and 25th in drive success rate. Compare that to Seattle, which is in the Top 10 in all three of those categories.

With all this in mind, it's hard to justify the Saints being as highly favored as they are. Take Seattle and the points.

My best bet: Seattle +5.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

Seahawks vs Saints spread analysis

This isn't to say that there aren't any red flags for the Seahawks heading into this matchup. Their pass defense has been atrocious by all accounts, ranking dead last in Football Outsiders' DVOA. Cornerback Michael Jackson has regressed hard from his breakout season last year, during which he posted an 84.4 Pro Football Focus grade compared to this year's 53.7.

Rookie defensive back Coby Bryant has been picked on early and often (40.1 PFF grade) and could get bullied out of the game by star veteran Jarvis Landry, who has played 115 of his 152 snaps from the slot this season.

In terms of external factors, the Seahawks do have the displeasure of being a West Coast team traveling to the Eastern time zone for a noon kickoff. However, they are coming off playing an early game in Detroit last week. 

To play devil's advocate, the Saints could also come out a bit sluggish in that regard, given that they are returning from London — a spot in which most teams are granted a subsequent bye.

Seahawks vs Saints Over/Under analysis

Given the poor defensive performances from both sides through four weeks, it's no surprise to see a total of 46.5 for this game — one of Week 5's higher marks. Both teams have played over that mark in two of their four games. Seattle has notably done it in their last two, playing to a monstrous 96-point total last week and a 50-point total the week prior.

Many might rush to bet on the Over, given all the excitement around Geno's play and Seattle's scoring output. Still, those types of outlier performances are more fitting to be met with the expectation of regression.

Plus, Andy Dalton's 236 yards and zero interceptions last week would classify as one of his better starts as of late. The last time he had as many yards with no interceptions in a start was in December of 2019.

Seahawks vs Saints betting trend to know

Andy Dalton went over his passing yard total just twice in eight games last year. Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. Saints.

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