Saints vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 5: This Carr Has Broken Down

The New Orleans Saints head to Foxborough on Sunday to try and jump-start an offense that has scored just three touchdowns over 16 quarters. The England Patriots sit as a slight favorite in NFL odds with a total of 40 in a game trending towards Mac Jones and Derek Carr both starting.

With a stumbling offense, a banged-up Carr, and some possible poor passing conditions, is there any reason to back the Saints offense, especially when the Pats brought in JC Jackson to replace an injured Christian Gonzalez?

Here are my free NFL picks for Week 5 odds between the Saints and Patriots.

Saints vs Patriots odds

Saints vs Patriots predictions

The Saints failed to get into the end zone in their Week 4 matchup against the Buccaneers, going 0-for-2 inside the 20 and pushing their red-zone TD percentage to a league-worst 33.3%. It’s hard to see how this offense is going to top its team total of 19.5 this week. 

Derek Carr played with an injured AC joint last week and it showed. He finished with a noodle-armed 0.4 average completed air yards per completion. This is a QB struggling to get the ball downfield, is limited this week, and will be facing double-digit winds at Gillette Stadium. 

There is talent on the Saints offense, but Carr is limiting it and OC Pete Carmichael's playcalling has also come under fire. This is an offense that ranks 28th in success rate and hasn’t played great defenses. If one line can sum up this offense it’s Alvin Kamara’s 13-catch day in Week 4 for 33 yards.

The tough part of this handicap is that the Pats sustained some big defensive injuries last week, losing Matt Judon and starting corner Christian Gonzalez. However, Bill Belichick has all week to prep as those players were ruled out early. They also traded for corner JC Jackson, who was elite in New England before not returning much for the Chargers. His addition helps but Belichick is still a coach who can exploit weakness and take away strengths (see the Jets’ run game two weeks ago) and the Saints certainly have holes in their game. 

Add in some double-digit winds and a slight chance of rain for a QB who can’t throw the ball down the field, and this could be a slow and low-scoring game. Both teams might play quickly (both Top 3 in pace of play in a neutral context) but it isn’t helping as they both rank in the Bottom 10 in yards per play with the Saints ranking 29th. 

My best bet: Saints team total Under 19.5 (+100 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Saints vs Patriots same-game parlay

Saints TT Under 19.5

Kendrick Bourne Over 32.5 receiving yards

Rashid Shaheed Over 27.5 receiving yards

+700 at bet365

Kendrick Bourne is pacing the Pats in air-yard percentage by a long shot and leads the team in target share. It's a modest total and with the Patriots' inability to run the ball, one I'm confident in. 

Pairing Rashid Shaheed with the team total Under is giving me a great multiplier. The field stretcher is getting a decent amount of snaps, running about 30 routes per game, and getting deep with an aDot of over 17 yards per target. He can top this Over with a single catch which doesn't take too much away from the team toal Under. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Saints vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

The Patriots were as long as -2 on the look-ahead and reopened around -1.5 before being bet down to -1. Some injuries on the defense might be behind the Saints' love as the Pats will be without two starters in Judon and Gonzalez. 

New England did trade for Chargers corner — and former Patriot — JC Jackson so the Gonzalez loss is mitigated slightly. Other than that, the Pats had no other DNPs at practice on Wednesday. Belichick also told reporters that Mac Jones will remain the starter after the QB was benched during the biggest New England loss in the Belichick era in Week 4 — a 38-3 defeat to Dallas. 

On the New Orleans side of things, this has been the 29th lowest-scoring offense in football at 15.5 points per game, which ranks only slightly better than New England at 13.8. The Saints have the worst red-zone TD% in football at 33%, Carr has an injured shoulder and couldn’t complete a deep pass last week, and Carmichael is popping up in the conversation for the blame with the lack of output.

The Saints are also dealing with a handful of mid-week injuries. TE Juwan Johnson was DNP on Wednesday and lots of depth guys are very questionable, including members of the O-line and secondary. 

The weather could play a factor as hard winds are expected as well as a small chance of rain. In a game that could see both backups in the fourth quarter thanks to the Jones' leash and Carr's bum shoulder, it’s tough to back this Over — even on a modest number of 40 that was 38.5 on the look-ahead. If the weather worsens or Carr has issues at practice, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this total go sub-40. 

Looking at usage, Bourne has 30% of the team’s air yardage and is second on the team in receptions with 16. All three receivers, including Juju Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker, are getting an even amount of snaps but Smith-Schuster has a 13.8% target share and Parker is sitting below 10%. Hunter Henry and Bourne are the only players on the team with a target share of 15% or more. 

Rhamondre Stevenson has 60 rushes to Ezekiel Elliott’s 34, but the primary back has just 2.7 yards per carry on the season as the New England run game is one of the worst in football. 

Kamara has played one game with the club and already has 14 targets and finished with 24 touches last week. He didn’t do much with them, accumulating just 84 yards, but he has returned to his high-volume role. With Kamara back and the Saints playing from behind last week, Shaheed had seven targets while Michael Thomas and Chris Olave both had six. However, the trio combined for just eight catches.

Saints vs Patriots betting trend to know

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.70 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Patriots.

Saints vs Patriots game info

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Saints vs Patriots weather

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