Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 6: Rousseau Runs Roughshod on Sunday Night

Week 6 odds in the NFL feature plenty of low totals on the betting board, and that should mean some great defense being put on display.

This week, I'm backing Bills edge rusher Greg Rousseau to get a sack against an atrocious Giants offensive line while also betting on Buccaneers Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

Let's dive into the NFL odds as I give out my favorite sack and tackle NFL picks for Week 6.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Brian Burns to record a sack — No
• Yannick Ngakoue to record a sack — No
• Greg Rousseau to record a sack — Yes
• Antoine Winfield Jr. Over 6.5 tackles and assists
• Quincy Williams Over 5.5 solo tackles

Picks made on October 14 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

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Best Week 6 sack picks

Panthers vs Dolphins: Brian Burns to record a sack — No

While Brian Burns is a talented young pass rusher who has picked up a sack in three of five games this year, the Carolina Panthers pass rusher will have a tough time getting to Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday.

The Miami Dolphins quarterback makes his reads fast and fires his passes quickly. While Tua was sacked four times by Buffalo's lethal pass rush in Week 4, he's been sacked just twice in his other four games. It will also help that the Dolphins are 14-point favorites against the Panthers, which could lead to a positive game script and a more conservative game plan from Miami.

Burns was a full participant in Friday's practice but he's been hindered by an ankle injury. If that ultimately saps his elite athleticism, he's even less likely to get a sack on Sunday.

Brian Burns prop: To record a sack — No (-115 at bet365)

Vikings vs Bears: Yannick Ngakoue to record a sack — No

Yannick Ngakoue had a sack against Washington's piss-poor offensive line last week but he won't find it so easy this week against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Chicago Bears right end will find himself matched up against Vikings stud left tackle Christian Darrisaw. According to Pro Football Focus, Darrisaw boasts a pass block grade of 82.4 and has surrendered just one sack this season. For his part, Ngakoue has a pass rush grade of just 51.2 this year, so he hasn't been consistently beating his man.

There's also a strong possibility that weather will impact this contest, with winds expected to average 20 mph and rain expected at some point. That should result in fewer downfield throws for Kirk Cousins and fewer sack opportunities for Bears defenders.

Yannick Ngakoue prop: To record a sack — No (-140 at bet365)

Giants vs Bills: Gregory Rousseau To record a sack — Yes

We could see a lopsided matchup on Monday Night Football with the Buffalo Bills installed as 15.5-point home favorites against the New York Giants.

One category where these teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum is sacks, as the Bills defense leads the NFL with 4.2 sacks per game and the Giants are currently allowing a league-worst 6.0 sacks per game.

A mediocre Giants offensive line has become even worse due to injuries to several starters, including their best blocker in left tackle Andrew Thomas. With Thomas sidelined by a hamstring injury, his replacement Joshua Ezeudu has been getting abused, and last week he allowed a sack that resulted in a neck injury for Daniel Jones.

Ezeudu has a pass block grade of just 40.5 on the season and the Giants haven't been any better on the right side either, where a whopping 30.3% of the pressure on Jones has come from.

With Jones sidelined, career journeyman Tyrod Taylor will take over at QB. Since Taylor will likely play with a negative game script, he should be dropping back to pass an awful lot. That should result in plenty of sacks for the Bills.

While Leonard Floyd leads the team with five sacks (-150 to record a sack on SNF), there's better value on Gregory Rousseau as the edge rusher is currently priced at +120. Rousseau missed last week with a foot injury but returned to practice on Thursday and looked sharp. Rousseau has three sacks in four games and his pass rush grade is slightly higher at 70.

Floyd could also see his snap count decline in the next few weeks since he plays on the same side as the now-healthy Von Miller. Grab the Over 0.25 on Rousseau's sacks total at plus money.

Greg Rousseau prop: To record a sack — Yes (+120 at bet365)

Best Week 6 tackle picks

Lions vs Buccaneers: Antoine Winfield Jr. Over 6.5 tackles and assists

Antoine Winfield Jr. is one of the game's top safeties and he's just as comfortable coming up in run support as he is at making plays in coverage.

Last year, PFF graded Winfield as the fourth-best defensive back in the league in run defense and his missed tackle rate of just 5.3% ranked 14th out of 110 qualifying DBs. Winfield leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 31 total tackles and has racked up at least eight tackles in three of four games this season.

The Detroit Lions feature an efficient offense and they love to operate in the middle of the field, either by pounding the ball with David Montgomery or using their receivers on intermediate passes. That should result in plenty of work for Winfield who will come up to make plenty of hits.

Antoine Winfield Jr. prop: Over 6.5 tackles and assists (+114 at DraftKings)

Eagles vs Jets: Quincy Williams Over 5.5 solo tackles

New York Jets linebacker Quincy Williams is coming off a terrific performance against the Broncos where he had a pair of sacks and nine tackles (including five solo) in a 31-21 victory. That was also the fewest solo tackles that Williams has logged in a contest this year since he has collected at least seven in his other four games.

The Jets have a tough task on their hands this week as they face an undefeated Philadelphia Eagles team that loves to control the clock and dominate time of possession. That has resulted in the Eagles running the ball at the third-highest rate (49.9%) in the NFL while leading the league in plays per game (71.8).

That will provide plenty of tackling opportunities for Williams in Week 6.

Quincy Williams prop: Over 5.5 solo tackles (-110 at DraftKings)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sportsbook. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will count as the player recording a sack. 

Books often have props for solo tackles, assists, and tackles which are made up of both solo tackles and assisted.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size, and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or allowing him to get easier matchups. Improved play in the secondary can also lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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