Raiders vs Lions MNF Prop Bets: Breakout Special for Jahmyr Gibbs

Prop bet #1: Doesn’t get any easier

It has been a rough season for Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, to say the least. He is averaging a career-low 2.9 yards per carry and has yet to reach 80 yards on the ground in any individual game. Jacobs has not seen his volume go down, but he can just not find any room to run, as he has 347 yards on 118 carries. 

It will not get any easier for him on Monday night against this Detroit Lions run defense. The Lions have only allowed 534 rushing yards this season, which ranks second in the NFL. Last week, the Ravens became the only team to surpass 100 yards on the ground in any individual game against the Lions in 2023. 

The leading rusher for the opposing team against the Lions this year had the following rushing numbers: 23 yards, 43 yards, 33 yards, 18 yards, 35 yards, 26 yards, and 64 yards. That includes the likes of great young NFL running backs Isaiah Pacheco, Kenneth Walker, and Bijan Robinson. The one outlier was a game in which the Lions were down big the whole game. 

This game script will likely have the Lions playing with the lead for most of the game, which will make it even more difficult for Jacobs to reach his rushing total. The combination of the Raiders' struggling offensive line and the stout Detroit run defense makes this Under a must play.

Josh Jacobs prop: Under 62.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Rookie breakout game

We have mostly only seen flashes of excellence from first-round running back Jahmyr Gibbs. However, the time may be now for the rookie, as he will be the workhorse back following an injury to David Montgomery. He was the main back last week but saw limited carries due to the nature of the game. 

The Raiders have a really bad run defense. They have allowed 903 rushing yards (24th) and nine rushing touchdowns (26th) to opponents this season. Only the Patriots and Broncos failed to reach 100 yards on the ground against these Raiders. James Cook ran for 123 yards, A.J. Dillon ran for 76, and D’Onta Foreman ran for 89 as lead backs against the Raiders this year.

Gibbs has averaged a solid 4.9 yards per carry this season. In the two games where he saw double-digit carries, he averaged 5.3 yards. The more touches Gibbs sees, the more likely he is to break off a big run as he is a legitimate home run threat on any given play. 

If Gibbs played to even his season average of 4.9 yards per carry, he would need only 14 carries to hit this Over. The game script with the Lions likely leading for most of the game will help him see more touches and hit this Over. 

Jahmyr Gibbs prop: Over 65.5 rushing yards (-135 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Targets open up

In a late addition to the injury report because of illness, Amon Ra St. Brown is now questionable to play on Monday night. This could open up target opportunities for some of the other wideouts in Detroit. My top candidate is Josh Reynolds. 

The last game in which St. Brown did not play, Reynolds was second on the team with five targets. Only Montgomery had more with six and he will not be playing. Reynolds has seen at least three targets in every single game except one this year. 

We will only need three catches from Reynolds in this game, so even if St. Brown does play, I still like this bet. If St. Brown is out, then this becomes an absolute hammer play. I think Jared Goff will be looking for comfort in his looks and Reynolds has been reliable over the years as just that.

Josh Reynolds prop: Over 2.5 receptions (-105 at bet365)