Both the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders are coming off prime-time losses in Week 2, so the two clubs will both be looking to bounce back at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, September 21.
While Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels’ knee injury threw a wrench in the odds for this Week 3 tilt, my early NFL picks and Raiders vs. Commanders predictions expect the home team to cover the number in a low-scoring battle.
Raiders vs Commanders predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Raiders vs Commanders spread pick: Commanders -3.5
I loved this spot for the Washington Commanders before the news broke that quarterback Jayden Daniels was day-to-day with a knee injury.
Still, Washington has the mini bye week following their Week 2 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football, while the Las Vegas Raiders lost 20-9 on MNF and now have to travel to the East Coast for an early Week 3 game.
Of course, the spread has also dropped to Washington -3.5, and the Commanders can turn to veteran backup Marcus Mariota if Daniels is indeed sidelined.
Mariota has started 74 games across his 10-year career, and this is also his second season with the Commanders, so I’m not anticipating a monumental drop-off offensively.
Washington head coach Dan Quinn just witnessed a perfect blueprint for containing the Raiders, so the Commanders should deliver a solid defensive showing in Week 3 and cover at home.
Early Raiders vs Commanders total pick: Under 44.5
This total has dropped considerably following the news of Daniels’ knee injury, and after the Raiders were only able to score nine points and gain just 218 yards on offense in Week 2, I don’t think it’s dipped enough.
Las Vegas QB Geno Smith ranks 29th in adjusted EPA per play and 31st in success rate among 34 qualified QBs through two weeks.
Vegas also ranks 24th in PFF offense grade and 27th in offensive DVOA, while Washington checks in at 22nd and 15th, respectively.
While I expect the Commanders to be able to move the ball on offense, there’s obviously a considerable difference in the big-play potential if Mariota starts instead of Daniels.
Washington will ultimately implement a more conservative game plan if Mariota is under center.
Raiders vs Commanders odds
- Raiders vs. Commanders spread: Commanders -6.5
- Raiders vs. Commanders moneyline: Raiders +240, Commanders -300
- Raiders vs. Commanders Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Raiders vs Commanders
- Raiders vs. Commanders matchup
- Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Landover, MD
- Venue: Northwest Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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