We're just three weeks into the season, but some teams' NFL playoff odds entering Week 4 have already shifted dramatically after an unbeaten (or winless) start to the regular season.
Below, I've broken down the latest playoff odds with my NFL playoff predictions and best value picks at Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps, along with the projected playoff field by the market.
NFL playoff odds entering Week 4
Kalshi prices are shown as percentages representing the market’s estimated chance of an outcome. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
NFL playoff odds for all 32 teams
| Team | Record | Make playoffs (Yes) |
Miss playoffs (No) |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bills |
3-0 | 93% | 8% |
 Chiefs |
3-0 | 85% | 16% |
 Ravens |
2-1 | 81% | 20% |
 49ers |
3-0 | 80% | 22% |
 Bengals |
2-1 | 76% | 26% |
 Rams |
1-2 | 72% | 29% |
 Jaguars |
2-1 | 70% | 32% |
 Vikings |
3-0 | 70% | 31% |
 Seahawks |
2-1 | 70% | 31% |
 Lions |
2-1 | 69% | 33% |
 Broncos |
2-1 | 68% | 34% |
 Eagles |
2-1 | 67% | 34% |
 Bears |
2-1 | 54% | 47% |
 Saints |
1-2 | 50% | 52% |
 Cowboys |
1-2 | 45% | 58% |
 Patriots |
1-2 | 44% | 57% |
 Texans |
0-3 | 38% | 63% |
 Raiders |
3-0 | 38% | 63% |
 Colts |
1-2 | 37% | 64% |
 Steelers |
2-1 | 37% | 64% |
 Packers |
1-2 | 31% | 70% |
 Falcons |
1-2 | 27% | 74% |
 Panthers |
1-2 | 27% | 74% |
 Commanders |
1-2 | 22% | 80% |
 Giants |
2-1 | 19% | 82% |
 Browns |
2-1 | 17% | 84% |
 Jets |
1-2 | 15% | 86% |
 Buccaneers |
0-3 | 15% | 87% |
 Chargers |
0-3 | 14% | 87% |
 Cardinals |
1-2 | 6% | 95% |
 Titans |
0-3 | 4% | 97% |
 Dolphins |
0-3 | 3% | 99% |
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Who will make the NFL playoffs?
With more than $2 million in trading volume, the latest Kalshi market features four teams with an 80% chance or better to make the NFL postseason field and 14 teams overall with a 50% chance or higher.
Here is how the NFL playoff field would look according to the latest Kalshi prices, ensuring the four division winners earn the top four seeds with the highest remaining teams slotted into the wild-card round:
NFL playoff projections entering Week 4
| Projected seed | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills (93%) |
49ers (80%) |
| 2 | Chiefs (85%) |
Lions (69%) |
| 3 | Ravens (81%) |
Eagles (67%) |
| 4 | Jaguars (70%) |
Saints (50%) |
| 5 | Bengals (76%) |
Rams (72%) |
| 6 | Broncos (68%) |
Vikings (70%) |
| 7 | Patriots (44%) |
Seahawks (70%) |
Despite a 1-2 start, the New England Patriots sneak into the final AFC wild-card spot with the lowest Kalshi percentage of any projected playoff team. Conversely, the Chicago Bears have the highest percentage of any team not currently in the projected playoff field.
Best NFL playoff picks entering Week 4
Bears to make the playoffs
I was already high on the Bears entering the season and especially after their nuclear performance against the Carolina Panthers to open the season. But the team's issues under center have clearly hampered the market's view of a team otherwise on track for the postseason.
I'm not particularly worried about that with Case Keenum turning back the clock and Caleb Williams working his way back sooner rather than later. The defense has turned heads, too, allowing 16 points with three takeaways over their last two games.
With Ben Johnson proving his mettle as one of the NFL's best coaches, I'm intrigued by the Bears' path to an NFC North title given the issues across the division — especially with their next four games coming against teams with losing records.
Patriots to miss the playoffs
I'm not sure what's more stunning: the Patriots' run to the Super Bowl last season, or their dramatic fall from grace just a few months after winning the AFC.
New England has already dropped two of its first three games in highly uninspiring fashion — Drake Maye looks closer to his rookie form than the MVP candidate we saw last year, the rushing attack ranks dead last in success rate, and the defense appeared listless last week in Jacksonville opposite a 35-point effort.
The Patriots can steal wins against the Raiders, Jets, and Dolphins in the coming weeks, but games against the Bears, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, and Buffalo Bills (2x) have me fading Mike Vrabel and Co. in a season with disaster written all over it.
More value picks to make NFL playoffs
Saints to make the playoffs
The Saints have arguably the clearest path to the postseason of any team on this list: win an NFC South in which no team has a winning record. They've shown they're capable of doing so after beating the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 and putting up massive numbers against the Las Vegas Raiders, only for four turnovers to undo that work. Those are the growing pains of having a sophomore QB, but Tyler Shough is the real deal in Kellen Moore's offense, and I expect better days ahead for a young and banged-up defense.
Raiders to make the playoffs
There are only five teams standing with a 3-0 record, and the other four all feature a 70% chance or higher to make the playoffs. The Raiders are the ugly duckling of the group, but there's real talent across both sides of this roster with a legit coach in Klint Kubiak pushing all the right buttons — especially the Brock Bowers button. This team could finish below .500 over its final 14 games and still sneak into the playoff field, and I'm buying that path at such a generous price.
Giants to make the playoffs
New York has the second-worst playoff odds of any team with a winning record, which is the price of losing key stars like Jaxson Dart and Brian Burns to knee injuries for the rest of the regular season. Yet John Harbaugh still has this team at 2-1 with a talented defense and hope on the horizon after trading for J.J. McCarthy. I'm not a full-fledged believer, per se, but at this price I'll gladly speculate on the G-Men limping into the postseason.
