Last week, I debuted our weekly NFL Touchdown Watch with a look at 16 players who finished one yard short of the end zone and didn't break through on that drive. If you put $10 on each of them to score in Week 3, you'd have earned a roughly $90 profit — good for an estimated 57.7% ROI on those 16 touchdown picks.
So we're going back to the 1-yard line this week: 17 players finished there in Week 3 without scoring on that possession, and only four reached the end zone on a separate drive. Omarion Hampton came up short twice, D'Andre Swift featured on this list for a second straight week, and Chris Olave watched the Saints' tight ends collect all four receiving touchdowns after nearly scoring himself.
We tracked every player who narrowly missed out on a touchdown last week to see which players offer the most value in Week 4 and beyond — including those three players above and two other stars worth backing to reach the end zone this week.
NFL Touchdown Watch: Who almost scored in Week 3?
Here's the full list of every player who finished at the 1-yard line without scoring on that drive in Week 3. We've also tracked the result of those drives and how each player's weekly PPR fantasy rank would have changed with one additional touchdown.
| Player | Stops at 1 | Drive result | Fantasy rank (actual → +1 TD) |
|---|---|---|---|
 Derrick Henry (BAL)* |
1x | Turnover on downs | RB3 (tie) → RB3 |
 James Cook (BUF)* |
1x | Josh Allen rushing TD | RB9 → RB3 |
 Javonte Williams (DAL)* |
1x | Brandon Aubrey field goal | RB10 → RB3 |
 D'Andre Swift (CHI) |
1x | Case Keenum rushing TD | RB22 (tie) → RB12 |
 George Holani (SEA) |
1x | Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving TD | RB22 (tie) → RB12 |
 Saquon Barkley (PHI) |
1x | Andy Dalton interception | RB30 (tie) → RB12 (tie) |
 Omarion Hampton (LAC) |
2x on 2 drives | Keaton Mitchell receiving TD; Cameron Dicker field goal | RB40 → RB19 |
| Brady Russell (SEA, FB) |
1x | Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving TD | RB54 (tie) → RB30 (tie) |
 Kaelon Black (SF) |
1x | Christian McCaffrey rushing TD | RB64 (tie) → RB36 |
 CJ Donaldson (NO) |
1x | Juwan Johnson receiving TD | RB72 (tie) → RB38 (tie) |
| Chris Olave (NO) |
1x | Juwan Johnson receiving TD | WR14 (tie) → WR5 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) |
1x | Jalen Hurts rushing TD | WR32 → WR19 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) |
1x | Josh Allen rushing TD | WR77 → WR41 (tie) |
 Trey McBride (ARI) |
1x | Jacoby Brissett rushing TD | TE8 → TE6 |
| Colston Loveland (CHI) |
1x | Turnover on downs | TE26 (tie) → TE12 |
| Jacoby Brissett (ARI)* |
1x | Jeremiyah Love receiving TD | QB4 → QB1 |
 Trevor Lawrence (JAX) |
1x | Bhayshul Tuten rushing TD | QB15 → QB4 |
*Cook, Williams, and Brissett scored once on other possessions; Henry scored twice. All four were graded as winners in the anytime touchdown market.
Looking for help on waivers? Our Dustin Saracini broke down his best Week 4 waiver-wire targets to help you find your next fantasy football pickup.
Players to watch after Week 3 near-TDs
Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers
After scoring in each of Los Angeles' first two games, Hampton reached the Bills' 1-yard line twice on Sunday but came up short on both tries — the difference between RB40 and RB19 in fantasy football if he had converted just one of those two attempts.
The former UNC star still led the Chargers with 15 carries in that loss to Buffalo, seven more than backup Keaton Mitchell, but the latter vultured Hampton with a 1-yard touchdown catch on the first of those drives and turned his eight attempts into 52 yards, just four fewer than Hampton. He also played just three fewer snaps while third-string back Kimani Vidal saw a 25% snap share, too.
I'd still listen if a frustrated fantasy manager wants to offload the enigmatic Chargers back, who has 50 carries through three weeks, but that volume isn't a birthright within Mike McDaniel's offense with two capable passing backs knocking on the door. And if he can't convert the easy chances soon, they could disappear.
Week 4 outlook: I'd be cautious with Hampton this week against the Seahawks, who are allowing 3.3 yards per carry and zero rushing scores through three weeks. With Mitchell nursing an ankle injury, I still like Hampton's upside this week, but the floor makes him a shaky RB2 play and risky touchdown pick.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
Swift is becoming a regular around here for all the wrong reasons. He appeared in last week's column and came up short again Monday, when a fourth-quarter carry ended at the Eagles' 1-yard line before Case Keenum snuck it in on the next play. That was the difference between an RB1 finish and a tie at RB22 for Swift.
I'm still buying the workload for the seventh-year back, who enjoyed a season-high 20 carries last week and ranks eighth leaguewide in rushing attempts (54) and tied for fifth in rushing scores (3). Even with Kyle Monangai drawing 10 carries of his own, there is more than enough volume to go around — including in high-leverage spots — with Ben Johnson calling plays.
Swift scored three times in the opener and hasn't reached the end zone since, but he still has more carries inside the 10-yard line (10) than anyone not named Derrick Henry. The talent, situation, and volume all point to a worthwhile investment here moving forward.
Week 4 outlook: Swift profiles as a strong RB2 (or better) this week against the Jets, who have faced the fourth-fewest rushing attempts by opposing running backs (54) but already allowed two such touchdowns with Jahmyr Gibbs running in two and catching one last week.
Chris Olave, WR, Saints
It's hard to complain about Olave's role in New Orleans: he's tied for the league lead in receptions (27) and targets (36) and paced his team with nine catches for 107 yards last week against the Raiders.
He still finished outside the WR1 range, though, after Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant combined for all four of Tyler Shough's passing touchdowns — including a 1-yard score in the third quarter that came after Olave went down at the goal line. If he had reached pay dirt, he would have finished as a top-five WR.
There's no reason to panic about Shough's early connection with his tight ends: Olave is the No. 1 target for a Saints offense that is just scratching the surface through three weeks. He should be a mainstay in the end zone by the end of the season.
Week 4 outlook: Olave is a slam-dunk starter this week against the Falcons defense, which has already allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts (604) through the first three weeks. He caught nine passes against Atlanta in their Week 12 meeting last season; if he sees that type of volume this week, I like his chances to score.
Who will score a touchdown in Week 4?
While Derrick Henry and James Cook are the most obvious names on the master list above, I'm targeting Swift as my favorite value to score this week in a juicy matchup against the Jets — especially if Keenum draws the start again this week for Chicago.
I'm all over Olave in a favorable matchup with the Falcons, and I'm also targeting Trey McBride and Saquon Barkley, two regular end-zone residents who came up just short last week and feel underpriced accordingly.
I'd add Hampton to your touchdown slips on opportunity alone, as the volume is too good to ignore even if it comes with a more tenuous outlook in Seattle this week.
| Player | Week 4 opponent | 1+ TD (Yes) |
|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (Bears) |
vs. Jets |
53¢ |
| Chris Olave (Saints) |
vs. Falcons |
44¢ |
| Trey McBride (Cardinals) |
at Giants |
39¢ |
| Saquon Barkley (Eagles) |
vs. Rams |
45¢ |
| Omarion Hampton (Chargers) |
atSeahawks |
44¢ |
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Fantasy ranks are calculated from ESPN's Week 3 full-PPR results. The +1 TD comparison adds six points to one player at a time, with all other statistics unchanged, including lost fumbles.
