My NFL Week 4 trends feature a Panthers team that keeps covering after losses, a Cowboys team that can’t stop topping totals, and a red-hot Vikings squad welcoming Miami’s barely functional offense to town.
Here are the top three NFL trends that I'm making picks on this week — plus some other notable trends worth a look (and ones to avoid).
Best NFL Week 4 trends
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| Trend | Pick |
|---|---|
 DET vs  CAR• CAR is 10-0 ATS after a loss. |
|
 DAL vs  HOU• DAL is 9-0 to the Over. |
Over 47.5
53% |
 MIA vs  MIN• MIN is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS. |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Lions vs Panthers trends
Trend: The Panthers are 10-0 ATS in games following an outright loss since the beginning of last season
Why it matters for Week 4:
Carolina is coming off a Week 3 loss and is getting 3.5 points at home against Detroit
Week 4 pick: Panthers +3.5
What exactly have the Detroit Lions done to deserve being a 3.5-point road favorite? Both of their wins came at home and went down to the wire vs. the Saints and Jets, while they got their doors blown off in their lone road game of the season.
The Carolina Panthers have the offensive firepower to go shot for shot with Detroit. They rank higher in yards per play through three games and will face a defense that just got lit up by Geno Smith.
Their response to a Week 1 loss? A 34-3 evisceration of the Falcons. This team keeps answering losses with covers, and Detroit hasn’t earned my respect yet.
Cowboys vs Texans trends
Trend: The Cowboys have gone Over the total in nine straight games
Why it matters for Week 4:
A total below 50 and a Houston defense showing cracks gives Dallas another opportunity to extend its Over streak
Week 4 pick: Over 47.5
The Dallas Cowboys apparently spent the offseason improving everything except their ability to stop anybody. Their defense ranks 28th in yards allowed per play and is dead last on third down. This defense might actually be worse than last season’s version, which isn’t an easy accomplishment.
Meanwhile, the Houston Texans defense hasn't resembled its dominant predecessors, either. That matters against a Dallas team whose nine-game Over streak has produced an average combined score of 57.6 points, with every game clearing 47.5. The Cowboys have also cashed eight straight road Overs, all of which topped 47.5.
Counting on the Texans offense might feel irresponsible, but Dallas has a way of making struggling units look competent. Houston should contribute enough against this disgraceful defense to help push a sub-50 total Over.
Dolphins vs Vikings trends
Why it matters for Week 4:
Minnesota returns home, where it scored 39 points in Week 1, to face a Miami team that has lost every game by at least 14 points
Week 4 pick: Vikings -10.5
Laying 10.5 points with a team quarterbacked by Kyler Murray is tough to swallow. Fortunately, the Miami Dolphins offense makes the decision easier. Without De’Von Achane, the Dolphins have zero firepower, and three touchdowns through three games hardly suggest they’re equipped to challenge an elite defense.
The Minnesota Vikings rank first on third down and in the red zone while allowing just 13.7 points per game. Expecting Miami to sustain drives against this group is simply unrealistic.
Don’t sleep on the Brian Flores revenge angle, either. The Vikings’ defensive coordinator gets a chance to humiliate the franchise that fired him. Expect this gritty Minnesota team to make Miami earn every yard and give its home crowd another dominant performance.
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Other notable NFL trends for Week 4
- 🟢The Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after an outright loss
Rams -3 vs. Eagles
- 🟢Seattle is 14-5-1 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season
Seahawks -7 vs. Chargers
- 🔴New Orleans' last 16 games are 12-4 to the Under
Avoid Under 48.5 vs. Atlanta
- 🔴Bucs are 0-12 ATS in their last 12 games / Packers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games
One of them will cover on Sunday!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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