There is a crucial AFC showdown on Sunday Night Football this week, as the Houston Texans will face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
The best NFL betting sites have the Chiefs as -3.5 favorites on the spread. There is also a smorgasbord of SNF props now available to bet on for Houston at Kansas City.
Below, we will look at NFL player prop projections for all of the top offensive players in this clash of playoff hopefuls.
Our computer projects big statistical games from Woody Marks, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice.
Texans vs Chiefs computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Texans |
 Chiefs |
|---|---|
| Stroud Under 232.5 passing yards (-114) | Mahomes Under 241.5 passing yards (-110) |
| Marks Over 45.5 rushing yards (-110) | Pacheco Over 25.5 rushing yards (-110) |
| Collins Under 70.5 receiving yards (-114) | Rice Over 68.5 receiving yards (-114) |
| Schultz Under 40.5 receiving yards (-110) | Kelce Under 49.5 receiving yards (-120) |
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Texans SNF computer picks
CJ Stroud Under 232.5 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 219.5 yards
Stroud has gone over 232.5 yards in just four games this season. Last week, he threw for 276 yards at Indianapolis, but the Colts rank 27th in passing yardage allowed, so take that performance with a grain of salt.
The Chiefs' pass defense won’t be confused with any of the all-time great defensive units, but they are currently in the top 12 statistically.
At home, Kansas City’s pass defense has been on another level. It has given up just 152 yards per game to opposing starting quarterbacks at Arrowhead this season.
I like the Kansas City defense to keep Stroud Under 232.5 passing yards — as does the computer.
Woody Marks Over 45.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 61.7 yards
Here is a look at the rushing totals lead running backs have put up against Kansas City at Arrowhead this season:
- Jonathan Taylor (58 yards)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt (25 yards)
- Ashton Jeanty (21 yards)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (65 yards)
- Derrick Henry (42 yards)
- Saquon Barkley (88 yards)
Overall, pretty impressive stuff from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Kansas City just seems to be a different team at home.
I like them to bottle up Marks in this spot. I’ll take the Under, while my computer friend really likes the Over.
Nico Collins Under 70.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 66.0 receiving yards
Sticking with the theme that Kansas City plays like a different team at home, the Chiefs have not allowed an opposing No. 1 receiver to eclipse 100 yards at Arrowhead this season.
In fact, the Chiefs have given up just 43.3 receiving yards per game at home to opposing No. 1 WRs.
This number for Collins looks to be far too high. I like the Under, and so does my bot buddy.
Dalton Schultz Under 40.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 36.2 yards
The Kansas City defense at home against opposing tight ends has been a mixed bag. They’ve shut down mid-level to bottom-tier tight ends like Zach Ertz (16 receiving yards), Michael Mayer (10 yards), and Grant Calcaterra (6 yards).
However, against top guys like Tyler Warren (45 receiving yards), Sam LaPorta (55 yards), and Mark Andrews (30 yards), it hasn’t been as easy.
Schultz is a mixed bag, recording 55 receiving yards against the Colts last week but only 8 yards against the Bills the week before.
The 40.5 number for Schultz is a little too high for my liking. I’ll take another Texans Under, as will the computer.
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Chiefs SNF computer picks
Patrick Mahomes Under 241.5 passing yards (-110)
Projection: 232.8 yards
Mahomes will be facing a Texans team that ranks first in Def Passing DVOA. Houston has been particularly stout lately, allowing just 201.5 passing yards per game in its last four games (all Texans wins).
You also have to factor in the Mahomes player prop tax here. Due to the three-time MVP's mystique, his pass yardage O/U is typically a few yards higher than it probably should be.
I’ll again agree with the computer here and take the Under. This game is shaping up as a real Under-fest.
Isiah Pacheco Over 25.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 41.1 yards
Houston ranks fourth in rush defense, as it is allowing just 91.7 yards per game to opposing teams on the ground.
I wouldn’t trust Pacheco to reach this number even if he were still the undisputed lead back in Kansas City, let alone with Kareem Hunt now getting the majority of the carries.
Hunt had 14 carries on Thanksgiving against Dallas, while Pacheco managed just three.
I’ll go with the Under, while the computer is taking the Over.
Rashee Rice Over 68.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 75.6 yards
If any team is going to shut down Rice, it’s the Texans. Rice posted 233 receiving yards total in his past two games (against the Colts and Cowboys).
The Broncos have been the only team to really solve Rice since his return. On November 16, Denver held Rice to six catches and 38 yards. His longest reception on the day was 11 yards.
Denver chose to let veteran Travis Kelce beat them that day instead of Rice, as Kelce was targeted a team-high 13 times. The Broncos’ strategy was a smart one, as the Chiefs mustered just 19 points and Denver came away with the victory.
I like the Texans to employ a similar strategy against the Chiefs. Their top priority will be limiting Rice.
I like the Under for Rice here, while the computer likes the Over.
Travis Kelce Under 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 39.8 yards
Kelce can get 40+ receiving yards in his sleep. In fact, he’s reached that threshold in 11 of the 12 games he’s played this season.
The Texans held Colts stud tight end Tyler Warren to 22 yards last week, but Houston pegged Warren as the focal point in that contest. This week, the Texans’ attention should shift to Rice, opening up opportunities for Kelce to party like it’s 2018.
I like the Kelce Over, while the computer is taking the Under.
