In life and football, managing expectations is the key to success.
Staying realistic — not getting too high or too low — allows you to adjust and find the sweet spot.
Those could be expectations around a new job, a budding relationship, or the start of the NFL season. Expectations are never more out of whack than in NFL Week 1.
We’re making these assumptions based on last year's results, new players and coaches, and a few preseason games and joint practices.
Often, those early expectations fall flat, at least for the teams projected to do well. Or maybe the teams we expected to suck exceed those low standards. Whatever the case, NFL underdog picks have consistently proven profitable in the opening week of action.
Over the past 10 seasons, Week 1 pups have covered at a 55% clip, and only once in that span have Week 1 underdogs finished with a losing record against the spread (7-9 ATS in 2024).
My NFL picks for Week 1 of the 2026 season toe that fine line: not getting too excited over some favorites and not getting too down on some dogs.
Good luck and welcome back to my weekly "NFL Underdogs" column. Hopefully, I can live up to your expectations.
Last season: 35-22-2 ATS (+9.14 units)
Last eight seasons: 247-214-3 ATS
NFL Week 1 underdog picks
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New York Jets +1.5 (at Tennessee Titans)
New Tennessee Titans coach Robert Saleh is either avoiding bulletin board material or getting ahead of excuses before facing his former club in Week 1.
Saleh surprisingly praised the New York Jets offense, which feels like complimenting IKEA on its craftsmanship. Saleh told reporters he thinks New York could finish in the top half of NFL scoring attacks in 2026.
The Jets could very well look that good on Sunday, considering the overhaul in Tennessee.
The Titans defense is a work in progress, and Saleh’s trying to plug the gaps with familiar faces, including five former Jets. New York also caught a break after Tennessee’s top tackler, LB Cedric Gray, crashed his UTV and suffered a concussion.
There’s plenty of tape on Saleh’s schemes lying around East Rutherford, which helps new offensive coordinator Frank Reich ready his game plan. New York has promising players at the skill positions and an offensive line looking to build on a better second half of 2025.
New York opened +3 in the spring, and offseason action has trimmed the line to +1.5. It would seem Saleh isn’t the only one who believes in the Jets offense.
Gimme Gang Green.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (at Cincinnati Bengals)
When sorting out NFL underdogs, you often lean toward the best quarterback getting points.
According to Baker Mayfield’s new $165 million extension, that dog would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 in Week 1.
Mayfield is hoping new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson can get this attack back near the top of the NFL. Tampa Bay slid from No. 5 in EPA per play under Liam Coen in 2024 to 20th in that metric under failed-and-fired OC Josh Gizzard last season.
Staying inside of a field goal this Sunday isn’t just on the Buccaneers offense. The Tampa Bay defense can’t let the Cincinnati Bengals run away on the scoreboard.
The matchup I’m most interested in is Todd Bowles’ pass rush versus the Cincinnati offensive line.
The Bengals’ protection showed positives in the second half of 2025, but those came after seasons of horrible protection. By that standard, any improvements were notable. Many preseason ratings list this O-line among the bottom 10 groups.
Tampa Bay’s stop unit will bring the heat, or it’ll die trying. That was the problem last year. Bowles blitzed at the fourth-highest rate, and all it got him was the eighth-lowest pressure rate, leaving foes to pick apart the Bucs like a charcuterie board at an HOA meeting.
I like Bowles’ pass rush to get its claws back against a Cincinnati side that’s been an offseason darling. That public appeal has a half-point hook bubbling up on the field goal, which I’ll gladly take with Tampa Bay +3.5.
Denver Broncos +2.5 (at Kansas City Chiefs)
The Kansas City Chiefs say Patrick Mahomes’ surgically repaired left knee is strong enough to start in Week 1. The Denver Broncos defense will be the judge of that when the whistle blows on Monday night.
Expect the Broncos to test Mahomes’ mobility with their vaunted pass rush. Denver is a Top 5 stop unit, anchored in pressure. The last thing defensive coordinator Vance Joseph wants is to allow Mahomes to get comfortable in his return.
An ailing offensive line could compound things for Kansas City. Guard Trey Smith has been limited by a hip injury all summer and admitted he’s not 100% heading into the opener. On the other side of the line, tackle Josh Simmons could sit with a back injury.
Sprinkle in the possibility of slick field conditions, with thunderstorms around Arrowhead on Monday, and Denver will dampen Mahomes’ miraculous return to action.
Week 1 underdog combo
Jets +1.5
Bucs +3.5
Broncos +2.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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