Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa., will be a homecoming of sorts on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET (NFL Network) when Mike McCarthy leads the Pittsburgh Steelers for the first time against his former team, the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with Matt LaFleur planning to play his starters in Pittsburgh, which is why my Packers vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks are backing McCarthy's former team on the road.
Packers vs Steelers predictions
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Who will win Packers vs Steelers: Packers moneyline
There are two clear reasons to back the Green Bay Packers on the road: Matt LaFleur is playing his starters, and Mike McCarthy's teams have a history of duds in the preseason.
Earlier this week, LaFleur said he thinks there's "a ton of value" in playing his starters. With Jordan Love behind a healthy offensive line (even if it's for just a few drives), it could be enough against a Pittsburgh Steelers team not expected to play veterans like Aaron Rodgers, T.J. Watt, and Cameron Heyward.
There's a good chance McCarthy will use the game to get Will Howard and Drew Allar live reps, and moving the ball against first- and second-string defenders will be tough for a pair of passers who have zero career pass attempts, including in the preseason.
McCarthy's recent preseason history hasn't been exactly inspiring. Across 13 preseason games as the Dallas Cowboys' head coach, McCarthy went 4-9.
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Packers vs Steelers prediction: Under 39.5
A big reason McCarthy's teams haven't found much success in the preseason is because of their lack of offense, and a huge part of that is the limited snaps he gives starters. That’s why Dallas averaged just 19.1 points per game and scored 17 or fewer points seven times in exhibition matchups under McCarthy.
During McCarthy's time as the Cowboys' head coach, Dak Prescott didn't play in a single preseason game, so it's hard to imagine a 42-year-old Rodgers playing in the Steelers' first preseason game.
And while the Packers are planning to play Love and their starters, LaFleur made it sound like it would be for a quarter at most. Once the starters are out, it's hard to imagine backup QB Tyrod Taylor playing much more than a few drives, too.
That means the Packers' QB combo of Kyle McCord and Kyron Drones (84 combined turnover-worthy plays in their collegiate careers) will likely combine to play at least a half.
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Packers vs Steelers weather
Though the forecast calls for rain and thunderstorms on Thursday, the weather is expected to die down by kickoff.
Still, the rain could impact the game, with field conditions potentially leading to poor footing given Acrisure Stadium is a natural-grass field.
Packers vs Steelers trend to know
The Under is 4-1-1 in the Steelers' last six home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Steelers.
How to watch Packers vs Steelers
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
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