Bucky Irving has been a workhorse, Luther Burden III is a big-play threat, and Baker Mayfield has something to prove.
Those three players headline my Buccaneers vs. Bears prop picks for Sunday's Nov. 8 showdown at Soldier Field, where kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET.
Find more NFL predictions and analysis with the latest NFL picks.
Best Buccaneers vs Bears props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bucky Irving 16+ rushing attempts |
53% |
 Luther Burden 24+ longest reception |
54% |
| Baker Mayfield 19+ completions |
53% |
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Prop pick #1: Bucky Irving 16+ rushing attempts
Give me Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving's 16+ rushing attempts prop up to 57%.
Irving has gone Over his rushing attempts prop in six of his eight games this season, including five straight, and he's had at least 19 carries in four consecutive contests. The ground game is also the best way to attack Chicago's defense.
According to RBSDM.com, the Bears have a better dropback success rate allowed on defense.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles has a defensive background and is regularly criticized for weak offensive game plans. Plus, Tampa Bay has the second-lowest pass rate over expectation, according to nfeloapp.com.
The bottom line: As long as they don't fall behind double digits early, the Bucs are "establishing the run" Sunday.
Prop pick #2: Luther Burden III 24+ longest reception
I'm cool with Chicago WR Luther Burden III's 24+ longest reception prop up to 56%.
Burden has gone Over this number in three of Caleb Williams' five games this season. Also, Burden lines up all over the formation, and Bears head coach Ben Johnson finds creative ways to get him the ball in space.
Furthermore, Burden has twice as many broken tackles (six) as the next closest Chicago pass-catcher. This is bad news for Tampa Bay's defense, which has surrendered the most yards after completion in the league and has missed the fourth-most tackles.
Whether Burden gets loose on a vertical route or breaks a tackle on a screen, he has multiple ways to clear this number.
Prop pick #3: Baker Mayfield 19+ completions
This is a simple “fade what we've seen recently” play. I'm willing to trade Baker Mayfield's 19+ completions prop up to 57%. I like Chicago to win, which means Tampa Bay may need Baker to throw more than Bowles would prefer.
Mayfield completed just seven passes in his first game back from injury two weeks ago and none last week. But he had 21+ completions in each of his first two games before dislocating his thumb against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.
Baker had already completed 17 passes before leaving that game in the fourth quarter, and Tampa Bay had another possession without him. He might've reached 19 against Minnesota's defense, which is better than Chicago's.
- Prop picks: 16-23, -8.27 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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