Packers vs Broncos Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 7: Love Struggles In the Air

The Green Bay Packers will look to get back to a .500 record this week when they travel to altitude and face the 1-5 Denver Broncos, who have yet to win against the NFL odds spread this year.

With both clubs getting extra rest going into Week 7, could bettors be forgetting about the recent quarterback play on both sides which could be leading to some prop Unders?  

Here are my free NFL picks for the Packers vs. Broncos on October 22.

Packers vs Broncos odds

Packers vs Broncos predictions

Bettors haven’t seen Jordan Love since Week 5 but despite a great matchup vs. the Denver Broncos, there is very little to be excited about in terms of the quarterback’s passing output this Sunday... and his passing yards are dropping because of it.

The Green Bay Packers QB has a passing total of 233.5 (-115 to the Under) heading into Week 7. Love threw three picks vs. the Chiefs in his last game and has been held to under 60% completion rate in four of his five outings this year. With Aaron Jones healthier, Matt LaFleur might be asking for less Love come Sunday afternoon. 

Love is averaging just 15 completions across three away games and completing under 55% of his passes. The Denver defense is a laughing stock, but its numbers are inflated thanks to that Miami game where it game up 70 points. It has also been without key members of the secondary, most notably safety Justin Simmons, who missed the Miami and Chicago game. 

THE BLITZ is also bearish on Love, projecting just 208.3 passing yards. Zach Wilson was held to Under 200 yards vs. this defense in Week 5 in Denver while Jimmy Garoppolo had 200 yards in the opener. 

Love is still one of the most aggressive passers in football as 25% of his throws are into tight coverage (one or fewer yards of separation). He also ranks dead last in CPOE at -6.9%. 

It will also be Love’s first start in altitude and Green Bay could be running with the lead late as both Jones and AJ Dillon are healthy and Elgton Jenkins should make his return to the O-line. After a three-INT game and six picks in his last three, Love could be scaled back.    

My best bet: Jordan Love Under 233.5 passing yards (-115)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Packers vs Broncos same-game parlay

Love Under 233.5 passing yards

Love Under 14.5 rushing yards

Wilson Under 23.5 rushing yards

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+575 +747 at bet365

This is a SGP built heavily on THE BLITZ projections. The model loves Love's Under passing and projects him for just Over 200 yards. The Denver pass defense is much stronger than it was vs. Chicago and Miami.

With this projected to be a close game, the chances of chunk QB rushes vs. prevent defenses are low. Love is projected for 12.4 rushing yards and his current 6.1 yards per carry is unsustainable. He has two carries in three of his five games and rushed more than three times just once. 

Wilson's rushing total has inflated a bit but a lot of his yards have come in catchup mode. Russ is averaging 25 rushing yards a game this year but that number was 18.5 a season ago. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Packers vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis

The Packers enter this weekend 1-3 straight up in their last four, with that win being an 18-17 victory over the Saints that likely should have been a loss. Green Bay is healthier but still without leading linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and the betting market hasn’t really liked it enough in this spot to move the line from GB -1.5. 

Denver last played on Thursday night in Week 6, and it was an ugly loss to the Chiefs, who managed just 19 points despite generating nearly 400 yards of offense.

It’s tough to trust Russell Wilson who had two interceptions in that game and was held to Under 100 passing yards. Jarrett Stidham could be looming at any moment with how it has gone for Denver who is 0-5-1 ATS this season and 1-5 SU. That only win was a massive second-half comeback vs. the Bears.

These clubs might be closer than bettors think and the QB play can sink either of them in Week 7. I can’t take Love on the road in Denver as a favorite. It’s that simple. Wilson and the Broncos might be a laughing stock, but that’s where the value usually hides. The Denver defense isn’t as bad as the numbers say and the home side might have the QB edge. 

The total was 45.5 on the look-ahead, reopened at 44.5, and has seen some Over money move that to 45 at the time of writing on Thursday afternoon. Neither team has a fast pace of play, with Denver running the no-huddle at one of the lowest rates in football (2.8%).

Green Bay should see an increase in run rate with Jones and the O-line healthier. While both clubs rank in the Bottom 4 in plays per game, I certainly lean toward the Under and would have to play it if it were to reach 45.5 again. This could be a sloppy game and one won by the team that shoots themselves in the foot the least.

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