Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams suffered a non-contact injury in the Week 2 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings and is expected to miss time. That's part of the major shakeup we saw in the NFL MVP odds at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps, immediately sending us digging for where the value now lies in this market.
Williams wasn't the only mover and shaker, as Josh Allen's Thursday Night Football performance against the Detroit Lions made him an even bigger favorite than he already was. He begins the week with a 28% chance to be the NFL MVP, according to Kalshi traders. Former top contenders Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence suffered losses in Week 2 and hurt their MVP chances.
Let's take a closer look at the NFL MVP market and our NFL picks following all the movement we saw after Week 2.
NFL MVP odds after Week 2
| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Allen |
28% |
 Brock Purdy |
17% |
 Patrick Mahomes |
8% |
 Joe Burrow |
9% |
 Lamar Jackson |
6% |
 Trevor Lawrence |
5% |
 Tyler Shough |
5% |
 Drake Maye |
4% |
 Dak Prescott |
4% |
 Jalen Hurts |
4% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
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NFL MVP at a glance
Josh Allen has taken complete control of the NFL MVP market, now trading as a 28% favorite following his three passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns on Thursday Night Football against the Detroit Lions.
Allen should absolutely be the favorite and has the highest projected probability of winning the award, but that doesn't mean he's the best buy in the market.
In fact, it's quite the opposite. There isn't a probability gap to exploit at 28%, as I make Allen closer to a 23% chance to win the MVP. That makes the current price a negative-EV trade.
More ripple effects across the NFL MVP market as the board continues to shift heavily following the Caleb Williams injury. https://t.co/EM8Kfj36Xw pic.twitter.com/LBQfBru9bo
— Jon Metler (@JonMetler) September 20, 2026
The other Week 2 event that sent massive shockwaves through the market was Caleb Williams' injury.
Williams had been trading as one of the favorites at around 11%, so when his non-contact injury occurred and initially looked serious, his odds dropped to 1%, effectively pushing that remaining 10% back into the market.
As a result, the NFL MVP market adjusted throughout the afternoon as traders reassessed who should emerge as the top contenders behind Josh Allen.
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Best MVP value picks behind Josh Allen
Brock Purdy 17%
The first player who showed added value in the market following Caleb Williams' injury was Brock Purdy. He was trading at 5%, while I had him priced closer to 7.6% in my projections.
Purdy went on to complete 20 of 22 passes against the Miami Dolphins for 287 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another score on the ground. That performance pushed him to 17% in the market to win NFL MVP.
What a throw by Brock Purdy pic.twitter.com/sGxatyRPQ6
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 20, 2026
Immediately following Williams' injury, there was an edge on Purdy, but after his performance against the Dolphins, with his probability now at 17%, that price has become a massive fade.
I wouldn't be surprised if Purdy finds himself in the sell category of my weekly futures article at that probability. He lacks the ceiling of some of the other quarterbacks at the top of the board because running back Christian McCaffrey will always take opportunities away from him in the red zone, and Purdy doesn't provide the same rushing upside as Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.
His probability certainly deserved to rise after his Week 2 performance, but I'd put it closer to 10% rather than 17%.
Joe Burrow 9% and Lamar Jackson 6%
Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson find themselves in the same category for me following Week 2. They're trading at 9% and 6%, respectively, and both quarterbacks are a few decimal points higher in my projections. There is an edge, but it's about as small as it gets on two popular quarterbacks.
The more human side of me leans toward Burrow over Jackson because I feel like voter fatigue with Jackson is real, while Burrow has never won an NFL MVP.
If the Cincinnati Bengals find themselves at the top of the standings with the defense playing at a higher level through two weeks, Burrow is undoubtedly going to be someone the NFL wants to see win the MVP at some point in his career.
Tyler Shough 5%
There were a lot of jokes flying around last week when a trader at Kalshi risked $5,000 on Tyler Shough to win NFL MVP at a potential payout of $500,000.
I highlighted in a video that, in prediction markets, you don't need a player to actually win the award. You just need to identify a probability gap, buy at a price you believe is too low, wait for the market to correct itself, and sell your position for a profit.
Well, Shough went on to defeat the Baltimore Ravens on the road and has now thrown for 662 yards and four touchdowns through two games. He also finds himself trading at 5% to win NFL MVP.
Would I buy Shough at 5%? Absolutely not. But do I think this trader used Kalshi in a way that's unique to prediction markets to capitalize on a probability gap he identified when Shough was trading at just 1%? Absolutely.
Trevor Lawrence 5%
With all the movement we've seen in the NFL MVP market, I think Trevor Lawrence at 2% found himself in the ultimate buy-low spot. Moving from 7% to 2% because of a poor performance on the road against the Denver Broncos felt like an overreaction, and his probability quickly rebounded to 5%.
How many quarterbacks are going into Denver, facing that defense at altitude, and putting up monster numbers?
I was stunned to see Lawrence drop that much on a day when Lamar Jackson also fell a couple of percentage points and Caleb Williams suffered his injury.
Lawrence has the skill set to win the award, and he's entering his second year with offensive-minded head coach Liam Coen. He also gets to play his home and divisional games primarily in warm-weather and dome environments.
Stay the course with Lawrence and take advantage of the buy-low spot if his odds dip again toward 2%.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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