The New England Patriots will look to build on their big Week 4 win when they host the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
Las Vegas (+3.5) has been surprisingly strong on both sides of the ball, and I'm taking the Raiders to cover in my Raiders vs. Patriots prediction below.
Read on for the rest of my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 11.
Raiders vs Patriots predictions
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Early Raiders vs Patriots spread pick: Raiders +3.5
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered in all four of their games this season, including twice already as road underdogs. The New England Patriots are riding high after a win over the Buffalo Bills, but there are still questions surrounding an offense averaging just 16.2 points per game.
While the Patriots have slightly better raw numbers, the advanced metrics give the Raiders an edge in this matchup on both sides of the ball. Las Vegas ranks 12th in offensive EPA per play, compared to 21st for New England, and eighth in defensive EPA, compared to 12th for the Patriots.
With the better team getting more than a field goal, I'm taking Las Vegas to cover on the road.
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Early Raiders vs Patriots total pick: Over 45.5
The Raiders have scored at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing 19.3 points per game, haven't slowed them. Kirk Cousins has thrown 11 touchdown passes through four weeks, finding seven different players for scores.
Drake Maye looked lost early in the season, but the Patriots quarterback broke out for three touchdowns and 269 yards against Buffalo. Given what we saw from Maye last year — 3,294 yards and 31 touchdowns — his larger body of work suggests he should continue to improve as the season wears on. New England can also lean on the run against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per carry.
With both offenses showing signs of life, I'm leaning toward the Over at 45.5 points.
Raiders vs Patriots odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Raiders vs Patriots spread: Patriots -3.5
- Raiders vs Patriots moneyline: Raiders 38% | Patriots 63%
- Raiders vs Patriots Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Raiders vs Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough, Mass.
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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