The NFL schedule makers know what they’re doing, saving their best showdowns for last.
We got some great games over the past couple of weeks, and our NFL picks for Week 16 are populated by plenty of marquee matchups. That close competition means getting points with some of the top teams in the league.
These rare underdog options are very tempting, but we have to ask ourselves: Are these “prestigious pups” being undervalued, or are they dogs for a reason?
Looking back to 2021, when the schedule expanded to 17 games, underdogs overall haven’t been a wise wager when the schedule heats up in the home stretch. From Week 14 to Week 17 (avoiding the weirdo results of Week 18), dogs have covered at just a 47% clip.
But not all dogs bark the same, and it’s within those closely contested late-season battles that they bark loudest.
Underdogs of a field goal or shorter (+3 to +0.5) have covered at a 51% rate from Week 14-17 since 2021. All other dogs (+3.5 or higher) went just 45% against the spread in that span.
So, as the old saying goes, “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight that matters but rather the size of the fight in the dog”.
Here’s to hoping these pups pack a punch for my best NFL Week 16 predictions.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 25-18-2 ATS (+4.38 units)
NFL Week 16 predictions and picks
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Rams +1.5
Chargers +2.5
Bears +1.5
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Best bet: Rams +1.5
(-122 at DraftKings)
We don’t have to wait long for the biggest game of Week 16. Thursday Night Football gift wraps an early Christmas present with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks butting heads atop the NFC.
This spread is all over the place, with L.A. anywhere from -1.5 to pick’em to +1.5 as of this writing.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams present the most capable offense this Seahawks team has faced since... well, their 21-19 loss to the Rams back in Week 11.
Seattle takes a big step up in QB competition, having faced rookie Cam Ward, backup Max Brosmer, 37-year-old Kirk Cousins, and Philip “Ol’ Man” Rivers the past four outings.
While Stafford is no spring chicken — also at 37 — he’s playing some of the best football of his career. And, as we saw in their last matchup, Los Angeles doesn’t need Stafford to blow up the box score for it to win.
The Seahawks, on the other hand, do need QB Sam Darnold to ball out. The journeyman passer has played better than expected overall, yet struggles whenever Seattle runs into a quality stop unit.
He was picked off four times by the Rams (No. 3 in EPA per play) and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt in Week 11, completed less than 55% of his passes for 6.9 yards per throw with an interception against Houston (No. 1) in Week 7, and finished with 54% completions, 4.9 yards per pass, and was sacked four times vs. Minnesota (No. 9) in Week 13.
If you’re going to give me points with the MVP frontrunner and a Top 3 defense, I’m going to take them.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Best bet: Chargers +2.5
(-112 at FanDuel)
The Los Angeles Chargers' defense beat the living shit out of the Chiefs last weekend and delivered a knockout punch to Kansas City’s playoff hopes in the process.
Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has had this stop unit playing at a high level all season, despite injuries and inconsistencies on offense providing little support on the scoreboard.
But the past few weeks, L.A. has found another gear. The Chargers aren’t just making it tough to move the chains; they’re making it dangerous.
They’ve recorded 11 sacks, seven interceptions, and forced three fumbles (recovering one of those loose balls) during their three-game winning streak.
The Bolts are a Top 5 passing defense, and their zone-centric schemes don’t allow anything deep, checking rival QBs to the fewest total air yards and allowing the fourth-lowest completion rate in the land.
Dallas’ offense relies on over-the-top shots, especially given the way the Cowboys’ defense hemorrhages yards and often puts this team in shootouts. The Cowboys are a Bottom 5 pass defense, no matter how the advanced metrics slice it.
This secondary made J.J. McCarthy look like prime Daunte Culpepper on Sunday night and now faces Herbert, whose busted hand is another week healthier.
Herbert does his best work against zone, which he’ll see almost exclusively from Dallas, and this L.A. offense averages about five points more per game indoors than outside.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+1.5)
Best bet: Bears +1.5
(-110 at BetMGM)
The Packers don’t have much time to pick up the pieces of their shattered Super Bowl dreams and head to illinois for an NFC North showdown with the Chicago Bears Saturday.
Green Bay not only lost at Denver in Week 15 but watched defensive juggernaut Micah Parsons suffer a season-ending knee injury... and the hits kept coming.
The offense could also be missing WR1 Christian Watson, TE Josh Whyle, and OL Zach Tom on the short week.
This is the biggest home game for Chicago in a long, long time. The Bears can put a cushion between them and the Cheeseheads in the standings and avenge a 28-21 loss at Lambeau Field just two weeks ago that was decided on an end zone INT.
Parsons was a problem for Chicago QB Caleb Williams in Week 14. He finished with seven QB pressures, six hurries, and two quarterback hits, which led to one of Williams’ worst outings of the season.
Without the star pass rusher, this Packers defensive line is far less dangerous and runs into a Chicago offensive line ranked among the best pass protectors and run blockers in the NFL.
The big bodies up front are No. 1 in pass block win rate and No. 4 in run block win rate at ESPN — one of only five O-lines to rank Top 10 in both metrics.
Williams, who averaged only 5.2 yards per attempt in Week 14, will now have more time to allow deeper plays to develop. And the Bears’ run game is picking up steam. It rushed for 138 yards on 32 carries against Green Bay and is averaging five yards per carry over the past three games.
The short turnaround not only compounds the Packers' injuries but puts the schedule squeeze on the Cheeseheads, having to play back-to-back road games and three away games in the last four weeks.
My NFL Underdogs column is 25-18-2 ATS this season for +4.38 units.
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