Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 15: Etienne Gets His Against Ravens

3-plus passing TDs

Matthew Stafford has an elite matchup vs. a Washington Commanders' defense that has allowed 150 points over its last four games and a secondary that ranks dead last in EPA/pass by a significant margin over that stretch.

As bettors saw with Tua Tagoviola in Week 13 vs. this defense, the game script can keep the yardage down vs. Washington as the Miami QB finished with fewer than 300 yards despite nearly 150 yards in the first quarter alone. However, TDs are guaranteed and the floor for Stafford here is two TD passes. 

The Los Angeles Rams QB has thrown for at least three TDs in three straight games and faces a defense that has allowed Tua, Dak Prescott, Tommy DeVito, and Geno Smith to throw 11 TDs with zero picks over that four-game stretch. 

Washington is waving the white flag and enters Week 15 with 10 defensive players out, on IR, or suspended. It’s an indoor setting that always favors passing efficiency and this L.A. passing offense is healthy and only trails the 49ers and Cowboys in EPA/dropback since Week 10. 

I’m loving Matthew Stafford's odds to throw for three or more TDs this week at +200 for a full unit. 

Matthew Stafford prop: 3+ passing TDs (+200 at bet365)

25+ completions

Only two teams allow more QB completions per game on the road than the San Francisco 49ers at a hefty 26 per game. With indoor passing conditions, extra rest, and likely plenty of negative game script, Kyler Murray's odds to complete 25 passes on Sunday at +240 is making the card.

The 49ers enter as massive 12.5-point road favorites, which should increase the pass volume of Murray who is coming out of the bye and last played in a monsoon vs. the Steelers which could be suppressing his totals. 

The Arizona Cardinals have been banged up at wide receiver since Murray’s return but could be healthier this week.

Marquise Brown exited Week 13 but got some limited sessions in to end the week. His head coach is still expecting him to make explosive plays and he doesn’t even have to be effective to help Murray’s Over — he just needs to stretch the field and open up the underneath routes.

Rookie Michael Wilson has been out since Week 11 but is coming out of the bye and was limited in practice all week. He’s designated as questionable but has a good chance of playing Sunday.

There are plenty of things making this a solid +EV, and when THE BLITZ is calling for Over 23 completions and his current implied projection is sitting at 21.7 (total of 21.5), that’s the final vote of confidence. 

Kyler Murray prop: 25+ completions (+240 at bet365)

75+ rushing yards

The weather is not looking great on Sunday night with the forecasts calling for 20-mph winds, gusts up to 40 mph, and some possible rain. That could force both teams to hit the running game a little harder in Jacksonville, and with Travis Etienne still dominating backfield carries, him hitting the 75-yard rush mark at +260 is getting put in the account. 

Etienne has been losing snaps to D’Ernest Johnson, but those have mostly been in passing situations as the backup had just three of the 17 RB carries last week with Tank Bigsby getting zero. 

The No. 1 back has shed his injury designation this week and could see a bump in rush volume with the weather. He’s faced plenty of elite defenses of late and although this matchup is tough too (priced in), volume and opportunity are there, as well as a 70.54-yard projection from THE BLITZ which is high on most rushing props in this game.

Etienne’s rushing total is at a 10-week low at 52.5 which is also great news for this milestone. It’s a No. 1 RB with the potential for a 20-carry game that should feature a neutral game script and weather that will suppress the passing volume.  All of this makes me love Travis Etienne's odds to eclipse the 75-yard mark even more.

Travis Etienne prop: 75+ rushing yards (+260 at bet365)