Best NFL Picks Today

With a backup under center, Todd Bowles wants to protect Daniels from any bad spots. That means using the run to set up third-and-manageable situations for his inexperienced passer. The Bucs ran the ball on almost 51% of their snaps last Sunday, a notable deviation from their run play percentage of 40.6% on the season. Irving ran 16 times for 61 yards in Week 4 despite being limited in practice due to a glute injury. His rushing forecasts all sit well above 50 yards on Thursday, with models ranging from 55 to 75 yards on the ground. My projection says 67 yards rushing from Irving.

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts threw for just 3.4 yards per attempt and the Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down with go-to receivers DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dallas Goedert (knee) sidelined Sunday, and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) exiting in the first quarter. It’s bad news for an offense ranking 28th in EPA per play. Of course, the Jaguars are executing on both sides of the ball, and I particularly value them allowing the third-fewest yards per rush, sixth-lowest rushing success rate and fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage. It’s going to be another long day for the Philly offense in London.

This year, the deficient Jets run defense has given up a staggering 126.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-worst in the NFL.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, New York's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.6% red zone pass rate.. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a staggering 58.5 per game on average).. While Chase Brown has been responsible for 10.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Cincinnati's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 17.0%.. Chase Brown has put up a colossal 1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

The Vikings offense is a work in progress with new QB Kyler Murray under center. It went 0 for 3 in the red zone in an uncomfortable win over Miami in Week 4. Tight end Tyler Hockenson took a knee at the goal line in the final seconds, so those results aren’t as dismal as they appear. New Orleans has given up a butt-ton of points to start the season, sitting last in opponent points per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed. Saints second-year passer Tyler Shough has done well versus the blitz, according to his PFF rankings. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, with the second lowest time in pocket and the second lowest pressure rate against. With injuries thinning out the rushing game, NOLA has had to pass on 66% of snaps, fourth most in the NFL. That’s led to at least 24 points in the first four games, coming against some very sound stop units.

The Tennessee Titans present a significant step down in competition considering the Texans have walked through fire in the first four weeks, facing the likes of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.  The defense isn’t living up to its top billing in the preseason, having allowed a ton of points, but the Titans don’t push back as much as those previous foes. Tennessee is 25th in yards per play and 29th in first downs. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is very familiar with Titans new head coach Robert Saleh, going back to their days in San Francisco. He beat Saleh’s defense last season with a 26-15 home win over the 49ers in which the Texans totals 475 yards of offense.

The model projects the Giants to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 47.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Since the start of last season, the formidable Washington Commanders run defense has yielded a mere 5.01 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 26th-smallest rate in football.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -4.5-point underdogs.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 63.7% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The Cardinals have been the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.. The Arizona Cardinals have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 61.5 plays per game.

Sam Darnold's 71.6% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a substantial growth in his throwing precision over last year's 67.9% figure.. Sam Darnold's 9.88 adjusted yards-per-target this year shows a significant growth in his throwing efficiency over last year's 8.2% mark.. The 49ers defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 1.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 7th-most in football.

Lamar Jackson's status is up in the air but the latest reports don't sound positive for the Ravens QB. This Sunday Night Football contest will turn into a game of “keep-away” as both offenses are anchored in the run, sitting No. 1 and No. 3 in rushing play percentage. The Falcons go deep into the play clock before snapping the ball – at least with Penix Jr. under center. Atlanta has posted an average of 32:53 in time of possession the past two games. Offensively, Baltimore is methodical even with Jackson at the wheel. Should he sit out Week 5, this attack will run considerably slower with the backup QB and lean even more into RB Derrick Henry. Short gains with the clock ticking and two sound defenses clear a path to the Under on Sunday night. 

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3 points.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Rams grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.. The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 7th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.