Lions vs Vikings Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 16: Lions Maul Vikings

The Detroit Lions head to U.S. Bank Stadium for an NFC North clash against the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Eve. The Lions are atop the division standings with a 10-4 record while the 7-7 Vikings can't afford to keep losing if they want to stay in the playoff picture.

NFL odds opened with the Lions as 3-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 47 for this Week 16 showdown. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Lions vs. Vikings on Sunday, December 24. 

Lions vs Vikings odds

Lions vs Vikings predictions

The Detroit Lions offense has been a well-oiled machine and while they have occasionally struggled outdoors (especially in cold or windy conditions), they've excelled indoors on turf. They've averaged an incredible 32.0 points per game in nine indoor contests this season while putting up at least 26 points in seven of those games. 

The Lions are coming off a 448-yard, 42-point performance at home against a Broncos defense that had played very well over the last two months. Detroit has a strong offensive line and a balanced offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in rush success rate and eighth in dropback success rate. 

The Minnesota Vikings defense has put together some surprisingly impressive numbers this year, ranking seventh in defensive EPA and ninth in success rate. That said, those analytics might be a bit fraudulent as they are just 23rd in opponent third down rate (40.6%) and 22nd in opponent passer rating (90.7).

The Vikes have one of the top pass rushers in the league in Danielle Hunter while nose tackle Harrison Phillips is one of the most underrated run-stuffers around. However, they are weak at linebacker and cornerback which is bad news against a Detroit attack that has a pair of running backs that carve up yards in the second level and a stud wideout in Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Detroit's defense has been so unreliable lately (27th in the league in EPA since Week 7) that I don't trust them to cover the spread even against a Nick Mullens-led offense. However, I do expect the Lions offense to have plenty of success of its own and I'll take the Over 24.5 on their team total.

My best bet: Lions team total Over 24.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Lions vs Vikings same-game parlay

Lions team total Over 24.5

Jared Goff Over 247.5 passing yards

Justin Jefferson Over 82.5 receiving yards

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+383 +479 at FanDuel

Jared Goff has extreme splits when comparing his outdoor play to how he throws the ball indoors. In five outdoor games this season, he has completed 63.6% of his passes with a passer rating of 82.0 and 252.2 passing yards per game. He has upped those numbers significantly in nine dome contests where he has a 69.4% completion percentage with a 108.5 passer rating and 274.0 ypg. 

This is the first time this season that these NFC North rivals have clashed, but in the last three games that Goff has faced Minnesota, he has thrown for more than 275 yards each time.

The previous time these teams met up last December, Vikings All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson went off for 11 catches and 223 yards. Jefferson came off the IL in Week 14 and was a non-factor, but he shook off the rust last week to haul in seven of 10 targets for 84 yards last week.

Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the game and Mullens looked more than comfortable airing it out to him and Jordan Addison last week. Expect him to once again put up big numbers against a Lions defense that ranks 23rd in dropback EPA and 26th in dropback success rate. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lions vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened with the Lions at -3 and while it quickly shifted to -3.5 it moved back down to that key number of -3 by Tuesday morning with some books setting the vig on the faves at -120.

The lookahead O/U was set at just 45 but after the Lions dropped 42 points on the Broncos and the Vikes scored 24 points with Nick Mullens at the helm, the total reopened at 46.5 before ticking up to 47.

Mullens is the third QB option for Minnesota following the season-ending injury to Kirk Cousins and the regression and subsequent benching of Josh Dobbs. Mullens played 10 games and made eight starters with San Francisco in 2020, completing 64.7% of his passes for 2,437 yards with 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

While the Vikings lost 27-24 in overtime to the Bengals last week, Mullens completed 26-of-33 passes for 303 yards and two scores. He also had instant chemistry with receivers Addison, Jefferson, and T.J. Hockenson, which bodes well for the Minnesota offense moving forward.

Lions vs Vikings betting trend to know

The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these division rivals while the Over is 5-1 in the previous six contests in the head-to-head. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Vikings.

Lions vs Vikings game info

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