All eyes will be on Baltimore Ravens superstar Lamar Jackson following his return to action in Week 9 against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium on Thursday, October 30.
Here are my top NFL picks surrounding Lamar Jackson odds ahead of the Ravens vs. Dolphins showdown on Thursday Night Football.
Lamar Jackson prop pick
Lamar Jackson best bet: Over 33.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has rushed for 35 or more yards in three of four games this season and 15 of 19 in 2024, including the playoffs.
If the two-time MVP winner is healthy enough to start, he’s going to be involved in the ground game, and opponents have been running all over the Miami Dolphins this season.
Miami ranks below average in PFF run defense grade, run defense DVOA, and schedule-adjusted rush defense, in addition to both yards and EPA per carry.
Additionally, Jackson hasn’t had a rushing-yards total this low in the past two years.
We’re obviously landing this number because he’s missed the past three games with a hamstring injury, and while there’s always the risk of aggravation or a change in game plan, I’m not anticipating it.
The 2-5 Ravens are the betting favorites to win the AFC North, and Jackson returning in a limited capacity doesn’t align with the long-term goals of a team with championship aspirations.
Plus, Baltimore just won in Week 8 with backup Tyler Huntley.
Expect a statement showing from Jackson that includes 34 or more rushing yards on Thursday Night Football.
Lamar Jackson same-game parlay
Lamar Jackson Over 33.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Mark Andrews anytime touchdown
In addition to Miami struggling against the run, they’ve also surrendered the highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks for the seventh-highest yards per attempt. It resulted in the Dolphins ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA while allowing the third-highest EPA per dropback.
Jackson is going to have success through the air on Thursday, and I’m anticipating him connecting with tight end Mark Andrews plenty.
Miami has surrendered the third-highest catch percentage and seventh-highest yards per target to the position, and Andrews has long been a favorite target for Jackson.
The two connected for a pair of touchdowns in the Week 3 loss to the Detroit Lions, and Andrews found pay dirt 11 times across 17 games last year.
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