Lamar Jackson returns to the Baltimore Ravens lineup for their clash against the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football.
The two-time MVP headlines a conservative approach in my favorite Ravens vs. Dolphins player props for this Week 9 clash.
Read more in my NFL picks for October 30.
Ravens vs Dolphins TNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Lamar Jackson |
Under 6.5 rushing attempts | -125 |
 Zay Flowers |
Over 68.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| De'Von Achane |
Under 59.5 rushing yards | -110 |
Lamar Jackson Under 6.5 rushing attempts (-125)
Lamar Jackson says that he is 100% healthy heading into Thursday Night, but I'm calling BS on that. You don't go from missing an essentially must-win game on Sunday to miraculously being fully healed in four days.
While I don't think Jackson will be significantly hindered by his hamstring, the lingering effects should make the Baltimore Ravens quarterback less able (and willing) to run the ball. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins' feeble pass rush isn't going to force him out of the pocket.
Jackson has finished with fewer than 6.5 rush attempts in three of four games this year, so expect him to stay in the pocket on TNF.
Zay Flowers Over 68.5 receiving yards (-110)
Miami has been awful against the pass, ranking dead-last in the league in defensive dropback EPA and success rate.
Zay Flowers is far and away the best receiver on the Ravens, and he'll look to take advantage of a piss-poor Dolphins secondary.
Flowers saw a whopping 19 targets over the last two weeks, but he wasn't able to do much with Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley throwing him the ball. The Pro Bowl wideout racked up more than 70 receiving yards in four of his first five games this year, and he should thrive with Jackson back under center.
De'Von Achane Under 59.5 rushing yards (-110)
Dolphins running back De'Von Achane has been the team MVP, but he faces a tough matchup on Thursday. Although the Ravens struggled to defend the run at the start of the year, they have shored up that area over the last few weeks.
Baltimore held the Rams to 74 yards on 23 rush attempts before going on its bye in Week 7. Last week, the Ravens limited the Bears to 92 yards on 23 carries, with 22 of those yards coming on a scramble by Caleb Williams against a prevent defense.
More than 68% of Achane's rush attempts come on inside zone and outside zone run plays, and the Ravens allow just 3.5 yards per carry on those plays. With the Ravens installed as 7.5-point favorites, the Phins could be forced to abandon the run if they fall behind early.
This is a five-star prop play according to EV Analytics, which is projecting 50.99 rushing yards for Achane.
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Ravens vs Dolphins TNF prop betting card
- Jackson u6.5 rushing attempts (-125)
- Flowers o68.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Achane u59.5 rushing yards (-110)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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