Lamar Jackson Odds and TNF Props: Jackson Excels When the Pressure is On

A critical AFC North showdown is set for Thursday night at M&T Bank Stadium, and while the Ravens come in off a disappointing loss, our Lamar Jackson spotlight picks expect the dynamic QB to continue doing what he does best.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 16, 2023 • 18:01 ET • 4 min read

The Week 11 odds give us an absolute monster of a Thursday Night Football match that features a divisional clash between two teams that are not only AFC North rivals but two of the best offenses in the NFL. The Bengals’ 5-4 record might not indicate that but let's not forget that Joe Burrow was carrying an injury for the first quarter of the season. We’re not focused on Burrow though, here we are looking at the NFL odds for the man under center for the Ravens, Lamar Jackson.

Now let's get stuck into the very best ways that you can use everything we know about Lamar Jackson odds to get the very best value on the Ravens’ QB for tonight's NFL picks.

If your looking for multiple angles of attack for this juicy contest, you can check out our Bengals vs. Ravens predictions, our TNF props, and our Joe Burrow odds spotlight. 

Lamar Jackson TNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Lamar Jackson TNF prop pick

Over 27.5 pass attempts (-110)

I don’t know about you but I can’t wait for Thursday Night Football and a battle between two of the league’s most exciting quarterbacks. The passing brilliance of Joe Burrow versus the dual threat danger of Lamar Jackson. Here we are going to Lamar Jackson and his passing, more specifically the number of passing attempts that he’ll have and backing the Over on 27.5.

On the face of it taking the Over looks risky when he’s exceeded 27.5 passing attempts in just four of 10 games so far this season but when you drill down into the numbers it starts to make more sense why the Over should land.

The Baltimore Ravens have lost just three games this year and two of those featured 27.5 passing attempts. With the other being a win over Tennessee in Week 6 and crucially a huge 33 passing attempts when these two met in Week 2, in a game which the Ravens ended up winning.

In fact, in the team's previous five games, the total only got exceeded once and they won four of those games, with last week’s loss over the Browns being the only exception but that was a game that they were winning for large parts. When this team wins the gamescript means they’re more likely to run the ball.

The last game between these two teams put up 51 points and that was with an injured Joe Burrow. The total for this game is 46 points, with the books expecting another shootout. If there’s a shootout then it further increases the chances of Jackson hitting the Over on his passing attempts and with these teams being so close, with the Ravens 3.5-point favorites, I think we’ll see this game being tight and Jackson forced to pass more, especially if the team fall behind.

Prop: Over 27.5 pass attempts (-110 at bet365)

Lamar Jackson TNF same-game parlay

Lamar Jackson Over 27.5 pass attempts

Lamar Jackson 1+ passing touchdown

Lamar Jackson to score a touchdown

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I’ve got a Lamar Jackson-themed Same-Game Parlay for you ahead of Thursday Night Football and it comes in at +500.

First up, as usual, it’s our best bet for the Bengals at Ravens which is for Lamar Jackson to have Over 27.5 passing attempts. With the game likely a shootout and a close one at that, we are surely more likely to see Jackson have to throw the ball, especially if the Ravens were to fall behind.

Next, we’re going to back Jackson to have 1+ passing touchdowns. This is a short-price leg to the SGP but we have to remember that Jackson isn’t known just for his arm, he’s a dual-threat option. He’s thrown 10 touchdowns in 10 games but it’s worth noting that he’s had four games with no passing touchdowns at all. With the Bengals allowing 1.11 passing touchdowns to QBs this season we should see Jackson get at least one, and in Week 2 when the teams met he threw two.

Finally, we’re also going to back Jackson to do what he does best, score touchdowns. He’s had five rushing touchdowns through 10 weeks but this projects to be a good matchup. The Bengals’ defense hasn’t been good against the run this season, allowing an average of 136.2 rushing yards per game, the third-highest in the league. They’ve also allowed a quarterback to score a rushing TD in a third of their games, something Jackson should be able to take advantage of.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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