Bengals vs Ravens TNF Prop Bets: Flower Power

Prop bet #1: Carving up the D

After his slow start to the season, while dealing with a calf injury, Joe Burrow has found his mojo, and this Bengals team’s playoff hopes live and die by his arm.

Since appearing to be back to his MVP-level self in Week 5, Burrow is seventh in EPA per play and sixth in success rate among quarterbacks, while being tied for first in CPOE with Jalen Hurts and having the highest completion percentage in the league at 76%.

He’s been on a tear and head coach Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan have leaned into their franchise quarterback. Since Week 5, Burrow has thrown at least 32 passes in every game while averaging 39.4 attempts per game in that span. The Cincinnati Bengals want to throw the football because it’s working so well.

In his five games since getting healthy, Burrow has thrown for at least 257 yards in four of them and has averaged 296 passing yards per game. And while the Baltimore Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL, they’ve yet to play a quarterback of a healthy Burrow’s caliber.

The most talented passer they’ve faced, outside of an injured Burrow in Week 2, was Jared Goff who threw for 284 against them. Mike Macdonald’s defense is loaded but has benefited from playing an injured Burrow, an injured Deshaun Watson, an injured Ryan Tannehill with a backup moonlighting, CJ Stroud in his first game, and three more backup quarterbacks.

The Ravens are also expected to be without Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey who hasn’t practiced this week due to a calf injury. That and the fact the Bengals rushing attack has been in the bottom half of the league this year — they’re 18th in EPA per rush and 20th since Week 5 — should influence them to go to the air early and often.

With Burrow playing at this level and Ja’Marr Chase coming off a 124-yard performance against the Texans — he’s currently seventh in the league in receiving yards — Cincinnati is going to have to get after the Ravens secondary to keep up with their rushing attack.

Joe Burrow prop: Over 256.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: All aboard the Gus bus

Whoever the Ravens stick in the backfield next to Lamar seems to benefit from Jackson’s ability to strike fear in the heart of defenses with his mobility. That opens everything up for everyone else and is the biggest reason Baltimore sits ninth in EPA per play and first in EPA per rush.

The biggest beneficiary of the Jackson effect this season has been Gus “The Bus” Edwards. The 238-pound power back has been a touchdown machine with eight in 10 games, third most in the league, thanks to his ability to run between the tackles in the red zone.

Of those eight touchdowns, seven have come in the last four games, and even with the emergence of undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell, Edwards is the surefire goal line back. Mitchell’s jitterbug speed is the perfect complement to The Bus, but it’s hard to imagine the East Carolina product taking away touches in 12 and 13 personnel sets against a loaded box at just 191 pounds.

Although Edwards as an anytime touchdown scorer and the Over on Mitchell’s 36.5 rushing yards seem like a perfect pairing against a Bengals defense that sits 22nd in EPA per play and 28th in EPA per rush.

The Bengals have allowed nine rushing touchdowns this season, tied for 11th most in the league, and 136.2 rushing yards per game, third-most in the NFL.

Gus Edwards prop: Anytime TD (+110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Budding star

The Ravens have struggled to find consistency at wide receiver throughout the Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore, but that might be changing. While first-round rookie Zay Flowers isn’t necessarily taking the league by storm, he has been everything offensive coordinator Todd Monken has needed him to be this season.

Flowers is second in the NFL in receptions among rookies with 50 in 10 games, trailing Puka Nacua by 14. He’s averaging exactly five per game and has caught at least five passes in six games this season.

Not only does Flowers lead Baltimore in receptions with seven more than Mark Andrews, but he’s also the leader in targets with 68 and has had at least six targets in seven of 10 games this season.

The Bengals have been middle of the pack in pass defense, sitting 16th in EPA per dropback, but have allowed 247.8 passing yards per game, eighth most in the league. Flowers will be taking on a secondary that’s boom or bust with its ability to give up big plays and force turnovers.

Cam Taylor-Britt has given up the 11th most receiving yards among cornerbacks this season (457) and Nick Scott has allowed the seventh most receiving yards among safeties (313). With Flowers’ ability to move around the formation out wide or in the slot, Monken can get some advantageous matchups to boost his receptions in this game.

Zay Flowers prop: Over 4.5 receptions (+130 at bet365)