Giants vs Chiefs MNF Prop Bets: Daniel Jones Continues Strong Play When Away

The Week 8 schedule comes to a close when the New York Giants plug their ears and head to noisy Arrowhead Stadium for a primetime matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs tonight.

The Chiefs are lofty home chalk for this game, which could scare off some NFL bettors. Luckily, sportsbooks aren’t shy about the NFL prop bets for Monday Night Football, posting a full board of alternative action.

Here are our best NFL prop picks for Giants vs. Chiefs on November 1.

Giants vs Chiefs prop picks

• Kelce to score 2+ TDs (+450)
• Jones Over 279.5 passing+rushing yards (-115)
• Mahomes longest run Under 11.5 yards (-120)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Giants vs Chiefs MNF props

No. 1 Chief Rocker

It’s been a bit of a down year for Travis Kelce fantasy owners. The Chiefs’ standout TE has great receiving numbers (533 yards on 45 receptions) but has only found the end zone four times in 2021 and has only scored one touchdown in his last five outings.

The drought is over tonight. According to Inside Edge, the Giants have allowed rival TEs to be targeted on 13 of 32 pass attempts (41%) inside the red zone — the highest red-zone target rate for the position in the NFL. New York gave up touchdowns to tight ends in each of its first four games but has closed the door since Week 5. 

Three of Kelce’s four scores this year have come inside opponents’ 20-yard lines and he faces a Giants stop unit that entered Week 8 ranked 29th in Red Zone Defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. The last time Kelce went three games without scoring a TD was way back in December 2019. 

You can take the layup on Kelce’s TD anytime prop at -120 or… you can take a swing with Kelce to score at least twice at +450 odds.

PICK: Travis Kelce two or more TDs (+450 at DraftKings)

'Daniel is traveling tonight on a plane'

"Danny Dimes" brings his dual-threat antics to Arrowhead Stadium and has performed quite well on the road so far in 2021. Jones owns a passer rating of 99.6 away from home, with three TDs to one INT in two-and-a-half games (injured early into Week 5’s game at Dallas).

In fact, Jones has thrived on the road during this young career, with a career passer rating of 93.6 while posting 230.1 passing yards and 24.76 rushing yards per contest as the visitor. Those numbers are shockingly better than his 75.5 rating at home.

Kansas City’s defense is still a mess, ranked 30th in EPA per dropback at +0.299. The Chiefs have also allowed 241 total rushing yards to rival QBs — 34.4 yards per game — which is the third-most among defenses this year.

Jones’ passing/rushing yards prop is sitting at 279.5 for tonight. He’s gone Over this number in four of his full six games in 2021. On top of that, Kansas City is allowing rival quarterbacks to average more than 319 total yards of offense per outing. 

PICK: Daniel Jones Over 279.5 passing + rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Bottling Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes is running a lot more than he’d like in 2021. The Chiefs star quarterback has 219 total yards rushing with an average carry of 6.8 yards through seven games, compared to 308 total yards rushing in all of 2020.

Over the last three outings, Mahomes has broken off some larger gains on the ground, posting runs of 13, 17, and 23 yards, which makes the Over on his longest run prop (11.5 yards) look pretty attainable. However, New York has done a good job limiting the damage rival QBs have done with their legs so far this season, giving up only 82 yards on 21 run attempts.

The Giants haven’t faced the spryest bunch of QBs but did keep sneaky-quick quarterbacks like Sam Darnold and Taylor Heinicke in front of them. New York is also among the better third-down defenses in the league (38.30% conversion rate — 12th), which is when Mahomes loves to break off a big run to move the chains.

PICK: Patrick Mahomes Longest Run Under 11.5 yards (-120 at bet365)

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