Expert NFL Combo Picks for Week 1

The much-awaited first Sunday of the regular season means combo opportunities that have our experts licking their chops. 

Whether you are looking for a single leg or the entire combo play, our expert NFL picks have found the best market prices for a potentially profitable opening Sunday.

Check out who our experts are in our Week 1 NFL predictions, beginning Sunday, Sept. 13. 

NFL Combo picks for Week 1

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Buccaneers vs Bengals	Buccaneers +3.5 Irving anytime touchdown Mayfield Over 14.5 rushing yards	7.41x
Saints vs Lions	Lions -6.5 Goff 23+ completions St. Brown anytime touchdown	5.70x
Jets vs Titans	Titans moneyline Ward 10+ rushing yards  Smith 1+ interceptions	5.43x
Ravens vs Colts	Ravens -3.5 Jackson 30+ rushing yards Jones Over 225 passing yards	7.50x
Falcons vs Steelers	Falcons +5.5 Under 41.5 Robinson anytime touchdown	6.75x
Bears vs Panthers	Bears -3.5 Under 47.5	4.55x
Browns vs Jaguars	First Half Total — Under 20.5 Jaguars Under 24.5 points scored Lawrence Under 231.5 passing yards	5.52x
Bills vs Texans	Over 44.5 Kincaid anytime touchdown Stroud o19.5 passing completions	11.00x
Dolphins vs Raiders	Dolphins +3.5 Willis anytime touchdown Cousins Over 19.5 completions	11.00x
Packers vs Vikings	Vikings outright Jefferson anytime touchdown Murray Over 1.5 passing TDs	6.00x
Commanders vs Eagles	Eagles -5.5 Barkley Over 79.5 rushing yards Barkley anytime TD	4.50x
Cardinals vs Chargers	Chargers -9.5  Over 47.5  Hampton anytime touchdown	5.39x
Cowboys vs Giants	Over 47.5 Pickens anytime touchdown Dart o29.5 rushing yards	8.00x
Broncos vs Chiefs	Mahomes o14.5 rushing yards Waddle o51.5 receiving yards Nix o1.5 passing touchdowns	7.00x

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert NFL combo picks for Week 1

Buccaneers vs Bengals: 7.41x

Inverse combos pay more, but correlated payouts make more sense. I'm choosing the latter because the Buccaneers +3.5 is one of my best bets for NFL Week 1. 

Furthermore, since I'm not sold on playing either side of this total and the Bengals had one of the worst defenses in the league last season, I'm throwing in a couple of Tampa Bay offensive picks.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Buccaneers vs. Bengals predictions.

Saints vs Lions: 5.7x

Lions quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown have been a go-to connection for Detroit, and Goff's 110.6 passer rating when targeting St. Brown was the 15th-highest mark to wideouts last year.

I expect the duo to be the driving force behind Detroit covering the number, and Goff has connected for 23 or more passes in five of his eight home games.

With St. Brown reaching double-digit touchdowns in three consecutive seasons, this touchdown prop is mispriced, and it provides a huge boost to the return of this combo. 

Check out Neil Parker's full Saints vs. Lions predictions.

Jets vs Titans: 4.53x

I'm leaving a little money on the table, but I'd rather use Tennessee's moneyline in my combo than fuss with the points.

Plus, I'm adding picks based on my reads of these quarterbacks. Ward will "leave it all out on the field" in Week 1.

Geno Smith has thrown 32 interceptions in 32 games for the Seahawks and Raiders over the last two seasons, and has been picked off at least once in 21 of those games. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Jets vs. Titans predictions.

Ravens vs Colts: 7.50x

Baltimore's offensive weapons give them the edge in Indianapolis, even if this remains competitive.

Lamar Jackson is always dangerous with his legs, and he cleared 30 rushing yards in three of Baltimore's final four road games last season. With Henry demanding attention from Indy's front seven, Lamar should have opportunities to find space.

Daniel Jones, meanwhile, averaged 238.5 passing yards last season and cleared 225 in seven of his first 10 games before going down.

Baltimore's pass defense struggled badly in 2025, and with Keenan Allen, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and others at his disposal, Jones should have enough opportunities to surpass this modest number.

Check out Quinn Allen's full Ravens vs. Colts predictions.

Falcons vs Steelers: 6.75x

The Falcons went 6-1-1 against the spread as an underdog last season, while the Steelers finished 4-4 as a favorite. I'm happy to take the points and fade Rodgers. He threw for a league-low 6.4 aDoT among the 29 quarterbacks with 300 or more dropbacks.

Additionally, pairing the Under 41.5 with Falcons rusher Bijan Robinson to score is an excellent multiplier to boost this combo's return. He's handled 95 red-zone carries over the past two years, and Robinson no longer has Tyler Allgeier in the mix to steal goal-line and short-yardage work.

Robinson also posted an NFL-high 120.8 elusive rating in 2025, so he’s a candidate to take it from the house from anywhere on the field.

Check out Neil Parker's full Falcons vs. Steelers predictions.

Bears vs Panthers: 4.55x

The total has also moved by a point this week after starting at 47.5. I'll stick with it until 53%.

If the Bears are able to take advantage of the Panthers' patchwork line to pressure Young, there aren't any experienced playmakers on offense to pick up the slack.

Carolina's running backs are unproven.

Last season's rookie of the year, Tetairoa McMillen, is promising but inexperienced, and former practice squadder Jalen Coker out of Holy Cross is the second receiver.

Coach Ben Johnson should have the Bears offense at another level in his second year and year three for quarterback Caleb Williams, but the Panthers defense is a tough Week 1 matchup.

The Panthers have a stout defensive line, led by Pro Bowler Derrick Brown. The linebacker corps has been rebuilt with veterans, and Carolina should be able to take away the Bears' run game.

Check out Shawn Krest's full Bears vs. Panthers predictions.

Browns vs Jaguars: 5.52x

Deshaun Watson will start at quarterback for the Browns in Week 1, making his first appearance in a regular-season game since 2024. 

Since his last start, he's undergone two Achilles surgeries, which threaten his ability to look like the dual-threat quarterback Cleveland was willing to trade three first-round picks for back in March 2022.

Since arriving in Cleveland, Watson ranks 56th in EPA/play and 57th in Success Rate among 58 quarterbacks to log 500+ snaps. Watson will also face the challenge of playing behind a completely revamped offensive line with five new starters for 2026.

Jacksonville's defense allowed the fifth-lowest completion% on downfield throws in 2025, which should limit Watson's ability to connect for explosive plays.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing attack could struggle as they shake off some rust, too. 

Check out Nick Galaida's full Browns vs. Jaguars predictions.

Bills vs Texans: 11.00x

The Texans have a great defense, but this Week 1 game could have more fireworks than most suspect. Josh Allen has plenty to prove with D.J. Moore in the mix, and C.J. Stroud is a different passer at home.

Kincaid is the best Buffalo TE vs. man coverage, and the Texans allowed eight TDs to that position last season.

Stroud has a better offensive line in front of him and some added targets, with projections calling for more than 225 passing yards in Week 1.

Check out Jason Logan's full Bills vs. Texans predictions.

Dolphins vs Raiders: 11.00x

Since Malik Willis is a dual-threat quarterback and the Dolphins will need him to use his legs, and Kirk Cousins is one of the most risk-averse passers in the league, I'm mixing a couple of their props into my 10x combo.

For reasons I'll elaborate on below, I'm banking on Miami dialing up run plays in the red zone for Willis, and Cousins will do what he does best Sunday: Check down for easy completions rather than air it out. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Dolphins vs. Raiders predictions.

Packers vs Vikings: 6.0x

The Vikings defense goes for the throat against a Green Bay offensive line limping into Week 1. On top of that, the Cheeseheads are down their top running back, and the Packers defense is a different animal when Micah Parsons is sidelined.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s offense shines on the fast track inside U.S. Bank Stadium.

Kyler Murray connects with Justin Jefferson for a touchdown, and his ability to play outside the pocket gives Kevin O’Connell’s red-zone playbook a shot in the arm.

I like Murray for 2+ touchdown passes for his debut in purple.

Check out Jason Logan's full Packers vs. Vikings predictions.

Commanders vs Eagles: 4.50x

The Commanders haven't had an answer for Eagles running back Saquon Barkley over the past two years. 

Barkley has run wild against Washington, totaling 428 rushing yards and five touchdowns through just three games since joining Philly, including 5.19 yards after contact per attempt and his highest PFF rushing grade in Week 16 last year.

While the Washington defense is set to improve, it’s still a stop unit that ranked 28th in rush defense DVOA and allowed the fourth-highest rushing success rate in 2025.

Check out Neil Parker's full Commanders vs. Eagles predictions.

Cardinals vs Chargers: 5.39x

Despite being a former quarterback and having a top-10 NFL quarterback, Jim Harbaugh is a relatively conservative playcaller with a balanced attack.

Chargers RB Omarion Hampton had just five touchdowns last season (four rushing and one receiving), but he only started six games. 

Furthermore, Arizona's defense gave up the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs last season and the fourth-most receiving touchdowns.

Since the Chargers didn't add any pass-catching options this offseason and they used a 2025 first-round pick on Hampton, I'm assuming he gets a larger role this season. 

Check out Geoff Clark's full Cardinals vs. Chargers predictions.

Cowboys vs Giants: 8.0x

This NFC East rivalry has produced plenty of points in recent years (3-1 O/U in the last four meetings), with the Cowboys doing the heavy lifting. With two brand-new defenses debuting and plenty of offensive playmakers, I like the Over 47.5 points.

A touchdown from George Pickens could help us get past that number; he scored six of his nine TDs versus zone coverage in 2025. He faces a zone-centric scheme on SNF. New York QB Jaxson Dart is always a threat to run and could take off more as he gets used to taking snaps under center. 

Check out Jason Logan's full Cowboys vs. Giants predictions.

Broncos vs Chiefs: 7.0x

Patrick Mahomes is running, whether he likes it or not, and his rushing total is already priced into the injury. Fifteen yards is 10 yards shorter than his season average last year. He is being priced as if he is playing with a cane.

Jaylen Waddle has looked great with Bo Nix so far, and the deep ball that they might be able to unlock could cause issues for this revamped Kansas City secondary. Waddle averaged 57 yards per game with a noodle-armed quarterback in Miami last year.

At Nix's price for two TDs, it's hard to pass up vs. the aforementioned new K.C. secondary that is replacing 75% of its starters from last year and other depth pieces.

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