The Atlanta Braves (56%) have dominated at home all year, trailing only the league-leading Milwaukee Brewers in win rate at home.
Taking on one of the league's coldest offenses against right-handed pitching, I'm backing the home favorite to complete the sweep with my Phillies vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, September 13.
Who will win Phillies vs Braves today: Atlanta Braves (56%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’m backing the Atlanta Braves up to 58%.
I don’t have much faith in the Philadelphia Phillies offense right now. They rank last – yes, last – in wOBA against right-handed pitching in September, and their .202 average puts them above only the Nationals.
Grant Holmes has held opponents to only a .200 average and .076 ISO over his past six starts, and this is a matchup in which his success should continue.
Andrew Painter has struggled to suppress barrels this season, ranking in the 30th percentile. That sets up well for a Braves offense that ranks 8th in xSLG against righties this month.
COVERS INTEL: The Phillies rank 27th with a 5.6% barrel rate vs. RHP in September.
Phillies vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (57%)
The Under is appealing and playable to 59%.
Holmes isn’t flashy, but he consistently gets the job done. He has posted a 2.27 ERA and allowed 0.25 home runs per nine innings over seven starts since August 1.
His barrel rate is trending in the right direction – 5.6% the past month vs. 8.5% this season – and the Phillies are struggling to hit for power, an encouraging combination.
Painter has quietly pitched to a 3.55 xERA the last 30 days. He’s in a much better spot than early in the year, and should avoid major damage.
Phillies vs Braves home run prediction: Matt Olson (27%)
There are plenty of signs Matt Olson is on the verge of a breakout.
He has posted a 22.2% barrel rate and 97.3 miles per hour average exit velocity against fastballs and sliders thrown by righties the past 25 games. Those just happen to be Andrew Painter’s primary pitches against lefties.
Zooming out, Olson’s power numbers are astronomically good when facing fastballs and sliders this season.
His ISO is .329 against fastballs and .629 against the slider. Downright absurd.
- ML/RL bets: 111-95, -6.55 units
- Over/Under bets: 106-94-6, -1.14 units
Phillies vs Braves weather
Temperatures are expected to sit in the high 80s with winds blowing left to right. Boost to the bats.
Phillies vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Phillies 45% | Braves 56%
- Run line: Phillies +1.5 (63%) | Braves -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (44%) | Under 9.5 (57%)
Phillies vs Braves trend
The Under is 13-1-1 in Grant Holmes' last 15 starts within the division. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
How to watch Phillies vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSP, BravesVision |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Andrew Painter (3-9, 5.71 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.46 ERA) |
Phillies vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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