You know it’s a big game when a quick Google News search of "Eagles Chiefs" gives you nothing but pop culture — or Taylor Swift, specifically — stories centered around tonight's Monday Night Football showdown.
From Philly radio banning T-Swift, to Taylor and Travis Kelce's parents meeting, to Patti LaBelle talking smack to Tay-Tay, if you’re looking for info on the ACTUAL GAME between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, you’d better go to Page 2 (or, ya know, scroll down this page a bit further).
This Week 11 non-conference clash is turning into a circus akin to the Super Bowl — which is the last time these foes faced off.
The Chiefs are slight home favorites after beating the Eagles 38-35 as 1-point underdogs in Arizona last February. And you can be sure Patti LaBelle is taking the points with her hometown team.
I dissect the MNF odds and give my best free NFL picks and predictions for Eagles vs. Chiefs on Monday, November 20. Be sure to also check out our MNF prop picks, as well as our Jalen Hurts spotlight props, and Patrick Mahomes spotlight props!
Eagles vs Chiefs odds
Eagles vs Chiefs predictions
If there ever was a case for awarding Super Bowl MVP to a member of the losing team, Jalen Hurts and his performance in Glendale last February was it.
The Eagles QB put on one of the greatest efforts in the history of the Big Game, passing for 304 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 70 yards and three more scores on the ground in the 38-35 loss to Kansas City.
Philadelphia needs another giant effort from its dual-threat QB, heading into the belly of the beast that is Arrowhead Stadium in prime time on Monday night.
Hurts and this Eagles attack not only face legions of “well-oiled” K.C. faithful but a Chiefs defense ranking among the elite in the league. Kansas City will be coming after Hurts with its aggressive pass rush, looking to hurry his passes and eliminate Philadelphia’s downfield threats.
The Chiefs blitz at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL and stir up pressure on more than 28% of opponents dropbacks (second most), collecting 31 sacks so far (third most). But making Hurts hurry is only half of the battle. Hurts is one of the best-rated QBs when blitzed, headlined by his ability to tuck and run away from pressure.
He logged 15 rushing attempts in Super Bowl LVII, and when facing blitz-heavy defenses this season, he’s run 12 times vs. Minnesota, 10 times vs. Tampa Bay, 10 times vs. Dallas, and nine times vs. New England — all of which rank Top 8 in blitz rate.
Hurts' rushing attempt prop for Monday Night Football sits at 8.5 Over/Under. It’s a mark he’s stayed Under in only two games this season, and most NFL player projections for Week 11 have Hurts forecasted on or over this exact total.
My number comes out to 9.7 carries from Hurts, with a ceiling of 10 rushing attempts from some models. But I strongly believe we’re in for more.
Not only have we seen the Eagles go run-heavy in the second half — anchored in the “Brotherly Shove” QB keepers — but Hurts may have to scramble on designated passing plays considering the coverage from the K.C. defense.
The Chiefs rank among the better pass defenses in the NFL, allowing a completion percentage of just 60.69% to rival quarterbacks and the second-lowest success rate per dropback allowed (38.9%).
Kansas City has been able to tie up top-tier receiving threats as well, recently limiting the Dolphins and Chargers playmakers. Hurts is down one of his favorite targets — and his biggest check-down option when pressure mounts — in tight end Dallas Goedert (out).
Hurts will go through his progressions and not find Goedert there, forcing him to run for it instead. On top of that, the bye week has his wonky knee feeling much stronger (he is no longer wearing the compression sleeve), and Hurts is ready to regain his place in the rushing playbook for Philly.
If Hurts comes anywhere close to his stat line from Super Bowl LVII, he will easily eclipse this rushing attempt prop and exact revenge for the Eagles on Monday Night Football.
My best bet: Jalen Hurts Over 8.5 rushing attempts (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Eagles vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Jalen Hurts Over 35.5 rushing yards
Jalen Hurts anytime TD
D’Andre Swift Over 17.5 receiving yards
30% boost available
Not all options are available for the SGP (Hurts carries are OTB for same-game parlays as of Sunday morning), but with Hurts expected to run a lot, you can feel confident the yards will come. Projections have Jalen rumbling for 40-plus, with a ceiling over 50 yards.
Hurts rushed for three TDs versus K.C. in Super Bowl LVII and has found the end zone at least once in three of the four games against other blitz-happy defenses this season.
With Goedert out, D'Andre Swift becomes the top check-down option when K.C. brings the heat. I see his targets climbing, and most projections call for 20-plus receiving yards from the lead running back.
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Eagles vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
This game has been circled by sportsbooks since the schedule release in the spring, with the early NFL odds setting Kansas City as a 3-point favorite over the offseason. That spread didn’t change much, with the lookahead line at K.C. -2.5 on Nov. 7 and the official Week 11 line hitting the board at that same spot last Sunday night.
Many sportsbooks took action on Kansas City throughout the week, which pushed the spread to a field goal. However, those 3-point spreads didn’t last long. Money on Eagles +3 flooded in and bumped the spread back to +2.5, which is where it sits across the industry as of Sunday morning.
Covers Consensus is showing 55% of picks on the Chiefs, while sportsbooks like BetMGM are reporting 60% of ticket count and 77% of handle on Kansas City.
Philadelphia enters Week 11 on a three-game winning streak but hasn’t played its best football away from home, boasting a +5.8-point margin of victory as a visitor. That's translated into a 3-1-1 mark against the spread. The Eagles are scoring almost six points per game less away from home and run into a Kansas City defense that has been the difference-maker for the Chiefs in the first half of the schedule.
Steve Spagnolo’s stop unit ranks No. 4 in EPA per play and No. 3 in Defensive DVOA at FTN, allowing 15.9 points per game — tied for the league low. Kansas City’s aggressive pass rush (blitzing on almost 34% of dropbacks) has disrupted opposing passers with the second highest pressure rate (28.2%), helping K.C. sit No. 2 in EPA per dropback allowed and success rate per pass from foes.
Perhaps the best approach for the Chiefs is to force the Eagles into throwing more — which means the offense has to get up on the scoreboard early. If not, Philly can lean into a grinding rush attack (No. 4 in success rate per run) versus a K.C. defense that has been pushed around by opposing run blockers.
The Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per carry to rival runners, which has the run stop ranking 31st in EPA allowed per handoff. Kansas City’s defensive line is also 31st in run stop win rate and faces one of the best offensive lines in the business when it comes to plowing the road for its ball carriers (tops in run block win rate at ESPN).
As for the Chiefs offense, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is calling on his receiving corps to step up against a dangerous Eagles defense. Kansas City leads the NFL in drops (24) and outside of tight end Travis Kelce and rookie WR Rashee Rice, Mahomes hasn’t received reliable efforts from his pass catchers.
Getting to Mahomes is a point of emphasis for Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai, who praised Mahomes’ ability to keep plays alive when pass protections breaks down. Mahomes has faced the 10th-highest pressure rate for QBs in 2022 with a league-high 40 hurries and 38 QB hits, but has only taken 12 sacks through nine games.
The Over/Under total for Monday Night Football was as high as 50.5 points in the offseason markets. However, the lookahead line during the teams’ bye week was 48 points, and the official Week 11 total opened at 48.5 points last Sunday night.
Money on the Under quickly came in early in the week, driving this number to as low as 45 points before seeing Over action bring it back to 45.5. This is much shorter than the closing total of 51.5-points for Super Bowl LVII (played indoors in Arizona).
According to Covers Consensus, 70% of picks are on the Over. BetMGM sportsbooks are reporting 51% of ticket count on the Under but 68% of the money banking on a lower-scoring finish in Arrowhead Stadium.
The Eagles enter Week 11 with a 5-4 O/U record on the season, having played Over the total in each of the past two games. Philadelphia runs one of the more methodical paces in the league, sitting 28th in seconds per play (29.6). The Eagles are known to go on long, extended drives in the second half, which boosts their average time of possession to third-highest in the league.
As for the Chiefs, they’re one of the better Under bets so far in 2023 at 2-7 O/U. Kansas City’s strong defense and a downtick in K.C.’s offensive efficiency has kept final scores below the number. The Chiefs are seventh in T.O.P. and also run a slower tempo, sitting 26th in second per play (29.4).
The NFL weather report for Monday Night Football is also having an impact on the Over/Under betting action. The forecast currently calls for light rain showers with wind gusts up to 20 mph, which will make the temperature feel like 30 degrees in Kansas City.
Eagles vs Chiefs betting trend to know
I’d be remiss if I didn’t include Andy Reid’s sensational career record off a bye week. The Chiefs head coach is 21-3 SU off a bye in the regular season, and 15-9 ATS in those outings (although I bet Philly +3 earlier in the week). Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Chiefs.
Eagles vs Chiefs game info
|Location:||GEHA Field, Kansas City, MO|
|Date:||Monday, November 20, 2023|
|Kickoff:||8:15 p.m. ET|
|TV:||ESPN or ABC|
|Opening odds:||Chiefs -2.5, 47.5|
Eagles vs Chiefs latest injuries
Eagles vs Chiefs weather
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