Jalen Hurts Odds and MNF Props: Jalen Runs Wild on Monday Night

While Jalen Hurts hasn't been putting up insane running numbers like he has in past years, this Super Bowl rematch may be the perfect opportunity for a signature game on the ground. Find out why in our best Jalne Hurts prop picks below.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Nov 20, 2023 • 18:00 ET • 4 min read
Jalen Hurts Philadelphia Eagles NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

In a Super Bowl rematch, the Kansas City Chiefs have the Philadelphia Eagles coming to Arrowhead Stadium to close out the Week 11 odds in what could be one of the best games of the year between the current favorite in their respective conferences.

While Taylor Swift may be the biggest star mentioned throughout the broadcast, the Eagles taking flight under the Nick Sirianni regiment has everything to do with their star under center shaking off early career criticism and blossoming into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

Jalen Hurts is poised to take the “Brotherly Shove” platinum under the Monday night lights and exploit one of the few weaknesses on Kansas City’s defense.

You can see how I’m betting the Jalen Hurts odds as we dive into the MNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more MNF coverage, check our Eagles vs. Chiefs picks and predictions and the best MNF prop picks.

Jalen Hurts MNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Monday Night Football bonuses

FanDuel All Users
Brown 50+/Kelce 40+ rec yards, Hurts 25+ rush
-105 BOOSTED to +150! Claim Now

DraftKings All Users
25% boost for "First Team in Red Zone" bet
e.g. -110 BOOSTS to +113! Claim Now

Betway All Users
Hurts 30+ rush yards, 200+ pass yards, 1+ pass TD
+145 BOOSTED to +170! Claim Now

Caesars All Users
Hurts 200+ pass yards/40+ rush yards
+160 BOOSTED to +175! Claim Now

BetMGM All Users
Chiefs -2.5, Hurts 1+ pass TD, Kelce 1+ TD
+275 BOOSTED to +350! Claim Now

Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Jalen Hurts MNF prop pick

Over 36.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season. They’re limiting teams to just 288.2 yards per game, fourth best in the NFL, and 15.9 points per game, the best mark in the league.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive front is third in the NFL in sacks (31) and holding opposing quarterbacks to an 84.5 rating.

This pass defense is tremendous and sets up well against a Philadelphia Eagles passing game that’s 10th in the league in yards per game (247.1) and led by Hurts, who sits sixth in EPA per play among quarterbacks, second in CPOE, and fifth in air yards.

It’s a clash of titans, but this Chiefs defense is no joke — fourth in EPA per play and second in EPA per dropback — and Hurts and offensive coordinator Brian Johnson can find their mismatches in the run game. 

Despite the Chiefs' dominance on defense this season, they’ve struggled at times to stop the ground attack. They’re second last in the NFL in EPA per rush and while they’re only allowing 112.2 rushing yards per game, they’ve allowed 4.6 per carry, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.

Against a quarterback like Hurts behind an offensive line as physically imposing as what the Eagles bring to the table, the Chiefs — who are still without star linebacker Nick Bolton — are going to have a tough matchup slowing this run game.

Not only does Hurts get a little extra pop to his rushing numbers with the frequency in which Philadelphia runs the “Brotherly Shove,” but he’s been the third leading rusher among quarterbacks this season with 316 rushing yards in nine games. He also has the fourth-highest rushing value among quarterbacks this season, according to QBR.

While the former Oklahoma star hasn’t been putting up the same rushing numbers as he has in past seasons, he’s still averaging 35.1 rushing yards per game and he’s on pace to have a career-high 166 carries this season.

Hurts is averaging nearly 10 carries per game (9.7) and has only had one game this season where he’s finished with less than eight carries. The main concern here is that he’s only gone Over 36.5 rushing yards three times in nine games, but with this matchup, the Eagles' game plan will likely ask more of Hurts' legs.

In his career, Hurts is averaging 41 rushing yards per game and has had at least 37 rushing yards in 26 of his 43 starts (60%) and while Kansas City hasn’t faced a ton of mobile passers, they’ve shown signs of issues slowing them. Justin Fields had a 47-yard rushing performance against them earlier this year and Russell Wilson had 61 rushing yards over two games against them.

Few quarterbacks in the NFL can open a game up the way Hurts can and his legs will be the key to Philadelphia lulling Kansas City’s secondary to sleep in hopes of setting up big plays over the top to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Prop: Over 36.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Jalen Hurts MNF same-game parlay

Jalen Hurts Over 36.5 rushing yards

Jalen Hurts anytime TD

A.J. Brown Over 84.5 receiving yards

If the Eagles get near the goal line, everybody in the NFL knows what’s coming, but it doesn’t matter, because they can’t stop the Brotherly Shove. With that in mind and knowing Hurts' legs will be paramount to victory, a rushing touchdown goes hand in hand with the Over on his rushing line.

Even with his rushing yards slightly down this season, Hurts has scored seven rushing touchdowns in nine games. It’s like clockwork when the Eagles get near the end zone, he’s treated like their goal line back and he's as effective in short yardage as anybody in recent memory.

In his career, Hurts has 33 rushing touchdowns in 43 starts and has scored at least one in 22 games. This season, he’s scored at least one in six of nine games.

Hurts scoring feels like a constant in Eagles games, as does A.J. Brown getting loose in the secondary. The two-time Pro Bowler is second in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,005 and has been on an absolute tear since Week 3.

In his last seven games, he’s gone over 100 receiving yards six times and on the season, he’s averaging well over his 84.5-yard line for this one with 111.7 per game.

He and Hurts have been in lockstep all year with the star receiver seeing 10.2 targets per game and having gone for 897 yards since Week 3 — 128.1 per game.

This tandem is going to give a strong Chiefs secondary all they can handle, especially with Smith flanking them.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site
.

Google News
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the star to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic

Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob has contributed to various sports media outlets since 2018, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, but Covers is the first site he’s worked at that is dedicated solely to the sports betting industry. Before working in sports media full-time, he spent five years as a local community journalist after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history.

He’s long been involved in sports in one way or another, previously hosting a podcast focused on the NFL draft and college football. Working as a freelance podcast producer, Rob has appeared on numerous sports podcasts and college football shows. He's also been a guest on SportsTalk Mississippi, discussing the NFL draft.

One of his favorite things about the sports betting industry is the way it helps shine a light on sports that get less coverage. He’s a diehard player prop bettor who always recommends using stats and analytics to identify the best players to back before placing a bet.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo