There are 11 outdoor games on the NFL Week 11 odds board and five of them could have their results skewed by the mid-November weather. That includes the biggest game of the year on Monday Night Football.
I comb the extended forecasts for rain, wind, and maybe even a little snow, and handicap how the elements will impact the teams involved and possibly your NFL picks.
Here’s the NFL Week 11 Weather Watch for the upcoming NFL odds slate.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns weather
The Ohio winds could cause a little chaos for this AFC North rivalry.
The forecast for Cleveland is calling for sustained winds blowing WNW from corner to corner at Cleveland Browns Stadium, with gusts getting up to 25 mph. Those breezes will also chill temperatures to a “feels like” range just above freezing.
When we think wind, your betting brain should go directly to kicking. And given the offenses and defenses involved, we could see plenty of drives ending in punts or field goal attempts.
The Cleveland Browns lead the NFL in field goal attempts with 27 (making 24 of those) with the offense 27th in third down conversion percentage and 28th in success rate per play.
The Cleveland defense, on the other hand, tops in stopping teams on third down (25.89%) as well as success rate allowed per play (34.4%). The Browns do leak TDs inside their 20-yard line (27th in TD%) but face a Pittsburgh Steelers attack ranked 23rd in red-zone touchdown rate.
The Steelers have attempted only 18 field goals (making 17) with the offense moving the chains on only 36.07% (24th) of third downs, with a success rate per play ranked 24th as well (41.1%).
Defensively, Pittsburgh’s not as stout at stopping foes on third downs (41.27%) but is 14th in success rate allowed per play and fourth in RZ TD rate allowed (40.74%).
The props for field goals sit at 3.5 (Under -150) total with the longest FG O/U number at 46.5 yards (Over -115).
New York Giants at Washington Commanders weather
This game barely made the Week 11 weather watch, but some models are calling for wind gusts up to 20 mph blowing WNW from corner to corner at FedEx Field.
Strong winds could push around any longer field goal attempts or deeper passes. The New York Giants and Washington Commanders both have attempted 18 field goals this season, with neither side especially accurate. New York had made 12 of those FGA while Washington has hit 14.
Downfield passing isn’t a problem the Commanders' defense has to worry about considering the Giants’ quarterback problems. New York is currently running under third-stringer Tommy DeVito and could give retread Matt Barkley a kick at the can this week. Either way, expect the G-Men to stay on pace with their league-low 4.2 yards per attempt the past three games.
The Commanders, however, are finding life in the air attack with QB Sam Howell picking up the pace. Howell leads the NFL in passing yards, attempts, and completions, having gone over 300 yards in each of the past three outings.
He also leads the league in intender air yards and Washington has hit 21 total passing plays of 25 yards or more — tied for seventh most in the NFL. Howell faces a Giants defense giving up the fourth most yards per pass attempt.
All this said, sustained winds will only be 10 mph, so don’t bank on the winds being that disruptive at FedEx Field on Sunday. This total opened as low as 36 and is bouncing between 36.5 and 37 points.
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills weather
The only thing colder than the weather in Orchard Park this Sunday could be the home team. Zing!
The stumbling Buffalo Bills host the New York Jets for a freezer of an AFC East encounter, with the extended forecast calling for “feels like” temperatures of 29 degrees. Cooling off Highmark Stadium are sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, blowing west from corner to corner.
That’s not all. Some models are calling for possible snow showers on Sunday afternoon. Brrrrrrr. Bills Mafia may want to burn all those tables after trashing them just to stay warm.
Winds and sloppy weather will make kicking a touch trickier and while strong gusts would both most QBs, Josh Allen’s arm cuts through the wind like a fighter jet. However, deeper shots downfield could be impacted, as Allen is No. 8 in intended air yards per attempt.
New York’s sputtering offense has had to settle for 24 field goal attempts (tied for third most) with 23 of those going through the uprights. Buffalo has attempted only 15 FGAs, making 12, but the RZ offense hasn’t been sharp during the Bills’ slide and the Jets rank fifth in TD% allowed inside their own 20-yard line.
The longest FG made prop is at 46.5 yards O/U while the longest touchdown total is at 32.5 yards O/U. Total FGs made has a total of 3.5 (Under -150).
There were six total field goals made when New York won that infamous Week 1 Monday Night Football game against Buffalo in East Rutherford.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos weather
Maybe the Mile High weather can cool down the red-hot Minnesota Vikings in Week 11.
Minnesota marches up the mountain with a five-game winning streak in tow, getting +2.5 points from the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.
The extended forecast for Denver calls for temperatures to hover around freezing (35 degrees) and some models are calling for rain showers into the evening with a 60% chance of precipitation. Winds will top out at 10 mph gusts.
This trip to Empower Field will be just the second outdoor game for the Vikings in the past five games, having visited chilly Lambeau Field in Week 8. You do have to look at the makeup of an indoor team when facing the elements.
Minnesota, of course, had Joshua Dobbs under center. He’s made magic for Minny in his two appearances since being traded from Arizona following Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury.
The Vikings are running a lot more with the playbook scaled back in the past two games. Minnesota isn’t a great rushing team to begin with and ranks 30th in EPA per handoff the previous two games. The Vikes are among the worst offenders in terms of fumbles, with a league-high 12 on the season.
As for the Denver Broncos, it’s coming off a short week following an upset over the Bills on Monday night. The Broncos have been very ground centric in recent weeks, handing off on an NFL-high 53.93% of snaps in the past three games. Denver has also put the ball on the ground plenty, giving away nine fumbles on the year.
Given cold hands and the potential for a slippery pigskin, we could see a couple of fumbles on Sunday night. The Broncos have also been a dangerous defense in terms of takeaways over their last four games, forcing 10 turnovers in that span — four in the win over Buffalo.
I’m going to float this possible prop pick for SNF: Defensive/Special teams TD +220. Just sayin’. Keep an eye on that rain come the weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs weather
The “Game of the Year” could have inclement weather in Arrowhead on Monday night.
Winds for Monday night could also play a factor, with some models calling for sustained breezes of 13 mph and wind gusts up to 20 mph blowing SE from corner to corner inside Arrowhead Stadium.
The bad weather would throw a speed bump down in front of these two explosive offenses, which combined for more than 70 points on the clean indoor track in Arizona last February. This Week 11 total opened at 47.5 and is down to 46.5 points.
If rain and winds are prominent, the nod would have to go to the Eagles offense. Philadelphia has the much stronger running game, ranked fifth in EPA per handoff and success rate per run. The Eagles' offensive line is No. 1 in run block win rate while the Chiefs' defensive front sits 31st in run stop win rate.
As for Kanas City’s offense, Patrick Mahomes receivers have a tough enough time catching the ball when the weather is dry. The Chiefs lead the league with 24 drops despite Mahomes sitting fourth in on-target percentage. Mix in some wet weather and those butter fingers could be extra greasy Monday night.
Kansas City is currently a 2.5-point home favorite.
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