Dolphins vs Texans Preseason Picks and Predictions: Houston Has No Problem With Depth

This Saturday, NFL odds bettors have an exciting preseason matchup between the Dolphins and Texans. The Dolphins started with a loss last time out while DeMeco Ryans got a win in his first NFL preseason game.

So, who wins this encounter on Saturday? Which quarterbacks will we see under center? Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Dolphins vs. Texans on August 19 to find out.

Dolphins vs Texans odds

Dolphins vs Texans predictions

Our best bet for this game is the Texans on the spread, where we’ll be taking -2 on the home team. To understand the reasoning behind the bet, it’s important we look at both teams’ preseasons to date.

In the first week, we saw differing results for each of the two teams. The Dolphins lost by 16 points to the visiting Falcons and never really got going. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play, which saw the Dolphins splitting their QB reps between Mike White and Skylar Thompson. Neither man really excelled, with both failing to throw a touchdown pass and tossing at least one interception, with Thompson getting picked twice. The failure of either quarterback to play at a good level is a major concern here, as it’s yet unclear if we’ll see Tagovailoa play.

I’m a big believer in using QB play to dictate NFL pick selections and that only increases in preseason, when there is so much unknown around QB snap counts, or even whether the best will play. Mike McDaniel used Week 2 of last year's preseason as a chance to put Tua in action, and we could see that here. However, this is a team that has already and very recently seen serious injuries to both Jalen Ramsey and Terron Armstead. 

With two of their best players now out for some time, you have to consider whether that will make McDaniel reconsider his approach and keep Tua away from any preseason games entirely. With those injuries, plus Tua’s head injuries in the past season, that would be the smart move, especially given that he’s performed well at camp so far.

We only saw rookie QB CJ Stroud throw four passes in the Texans’ preseason debut, but he only connected with two and got picked, too. It was a rough state for the former Ohio State man, but this game will be an opportunity to give him more action and hopefully see him flourish. We have confirmation from Ryans that he’ll get the start here, but we’re unsure of how long he’ll see on the field. There’s a capable backup pair in Case Keenum and Davis Mills, who should be able to lead this Texans team to victory if Stroud himself can’t.

My best bet: Texans -2 (-110 at PointsBet)

Dolphins vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned above, I’m taking the Texans on the spread. It’s partly down to the lack of clarity about Tagovailoa’s participation in this game, and I’d expect to see the line move further if it’s confirmed that he won’t play.

The difference in the backups is stark; Thompson and White are subpar quarterbacking options in this league whereas a look onto the Texans’ sideline sees Keenum and Mills behind Stroud. By no means am I suggesting that either Keenum or Mills are star QBs, but they’ve both done okay jobs in this league previously, and while they don’t have enough to their game to be franchise QBs, both are more than capable game-managers who can help a team navigate a preseason game against the Dolphins’ second-stringers. 

In the 11-point victory over the Patriots, we saw Keenum with 14 pass attempts and Mills 12, with both men completing nine and getting a touchdown in the process. Mills was arguably the more impressive of the duo, however, they should both have enough punch to keep this unit afloat.

The points total for this game sits around 38.5 points, and if I’m honest, I really struggle to pick a side of this that I’d personally want to stake my own money on. Instead, I’d recommend that you stick to backing the spread, which is something that we can have a marginally better understanding of, given that it will be driven so much by the QB play for either team.

Dolphins vs Texans betting trend to know

The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Texans.

Dolphins vs Texans game info

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