My Cowboys vs. Giants prop picks for the season's maiden voyage of Sunday Night Football target Jaxson Dart's legs, Jake Ferguson's workload, and a big-play opportunity for rookie Malachi Fields.
Check out my NFL picks for more, and read our full Cowboys vs. Giants prediction before the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff from MetLife Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 13.
Best Cowboys vs Giants props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jaxson Dart Over 29.5 rushing yards |
55% |
 Jake Ferguson Under 24.5 receiving yards |
47% |
| Malachi Fields longest reception Over 14.5 yards |
55% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Jaxson Dart Over 29.5 rushing yards
New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart offers a rushing yards prop that has value up to 40+ (37%).
Good luck to first-year Giants head coach John Harbaugh, who will need to have plays ready for Jameis Winston if and when Dart goes to the blue medical tent.
However, under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football, Dart will probably go all out like he usually does, especially against a Dallas Cowboys defense that finished 30th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season.
Furthermore, Dart ran for at least 32 yards in eight of his 12 starts last season and boasted seven games of 48+ rushing yards.
Prop pick #2: Jake Ferguson Under 24.5 receiving yards
I'm willing to take the Under for Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson's receiving yards prop down to 22.5, as long as the payout is fat enough (40% or lower).
There are too many mouths to feed in Dallas' offense, including receivers CeeDee Lamb, Ryan Flournoy, and George Pickens, as well as running back Javonte Williams.
With that in mind, Ferguson's target share will most likely take a hit in a slow-paced affair, and I'm expecting the Giants to eat the clock with their ground game.
Despite making the Pro Bowl team last season, Ferguson was also Dallas' lowest-graded pass-catcher at his position, per Pro Football Focus.
Prop pick #3: Malachi Fields longest reception Over 14.5 yards
Malachi Fields is a big-bodied wide receiver from Notre Dame whom the Giants drafted to catch contested balls and win one-on-one battles downfield.
New York will throw body blows (AKA run the ball) with Dart and Cam Skattebo to later set up power punches through the air.
Fields' rookie status means he won't be double-teamed, and the Cowboys ranked 27th in defensive passing success rate last season, according to RBSDM.com.
Playable to 17.5 yards (45% or lower).
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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