We’re heading into the first Sunday Night Football of this fresh NFL season, and regardless of how your afternoon went, I’ve hunted down three solid long-shot selections for Cowboys vs. Giants.
Here are three Sunday Night Football long-shot picks that you can stack together as a combo for a huge return at Kalshi, including a Jaxson Dart rushing prop.
Don't miss our NFL picks for Week 1, and consult Jason Logan's Cowboys vs. Giants predictions for full-game analysis of Sunday Night Football.
Sunday Night Football long-shot picks for Week 1
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Giants team total Over 31.5 points |
18% |
| Jaxson Dart 50+ rushing yards |
22% |
| Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown |
23% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Giants team total Over 31.5 points
This is a new-look Dallas Cowboys defensive unit. The team has welcomed Christian Parker from the Philadelphia Eagles to take the defensive coordinator role, and there has been turnover in the playing group, too.
However, there’s a limit to just how much Parker can change in a short space of time, and this is the unit that ranked bottom of the NFL in defensive DVOA last season.
While we don’t know for certain if Malik Nabers is playing, it feels likely that he’ll be suited up. This is a New York Giants team that spent the majority of last season without Nabers and half of it without Cam Skattebo, and still ranked 16th in points scored and top half in yards per game.
With Matt Nagy at OC and a serious upgrade at head coach in John Harbaugh, it’s believable to see this offense improve. Given they scored 37 and 34 points in games against the Cowboys last year, we can back them to go Over 31.5 here.
Play to 20%.
Pick #2: Jaxson Dart 50+ rushing yards
It’s a big sophomore season for Jaxson Dart, who still has a lot to prove after a rookie campaign that featured some exceptional moments mixed with a few areas of concern.
Dart showed real bravery time and time again, often taking the team on his back and using his legs to try and make a difference. That led to him racking up the third-most rushing yards per game, and finishing with an average of 40.6 yards per game on the ground.
He was sneaky-elusive and came alive when scrambling, something worth remembering considering the Cowboys gave up the third-most scramble yards per game in 2025.
The Cowboys are favorites here, and if the Giants do indeed end up chasing this game, then it’s just going to further boost the likelihood of Dart needing to do it himself and use his feet.
Play to 24%.
Pick #3: Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown
After a career at the Baltimore Ravens spent as the second choice behind Mark Andrews, we’re finally seeing Isaiah Likely get his chance to shine.
He arrives in New York as the clear No. 1 option at tight end, with the Giants TE room lacking talent behind him. Theo Johnson and Chris Manhertz are both serviceable NFL starters, but not game-breakers.
Nabers will draw the most attention and superior coverage on the offense. Elsewhere, the Giants have lost Wan’Dale Robinson, meaning that 140 targets are freed up. With Darnell Mooney and rookie Malachi Fields listed as the other pass-catching starters, it’s clear that Isaiah Likely is poised to be the second receiving option on this offense.
Likely is going to be a volume monster for the Giants this week and beyond, and he’s the best long-shot touchdown scorer on the board this Sunday.
Play to 25%.
Week 1 SNF long-shot combo
Giants team total Over 31.5 points
Jaxson Dart 50+ rushing yards
Isaiah Likely anytime touchdown
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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