Injuries to the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense have the birds as rare home underdogs when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
My Cowboys vs. Eagles moneyline pick measures the market moves against those ailments and singles out the best outright option on Oct. 26.
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Cowboys vs Eagles moneyline odds and pick
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Eagles moneyline |
34% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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The case for the Cowboys moneyline
Outside of their defensive downfalls, the Dallas Cowboys still come into MNF with the better offense. At least on paper. Dak Prescott is a much stronger quarterback than Tanner McKee, and owning the QB edge is often enough to get a win on the road. Philly is also down its top two receivers.
The case for the Eagles moneyline
The Philadelphia Eagles' defense has been inconsistent to start the year but is still a solid stop unit, stepping up on the prime-time stage at home in Week 7. The Eagles are a tougher task inside The Linc and face a Cowboys attack that’s stalled out the past two games.
Cowboys vs Eagles moneyline pick & confidence level
The market perception between QB1 Jalen Hurts and McKee may be too grand, discounting Philadelphia more than it should. Hurts was a bottom 10 QB in a bunch of advanced passer metrics and McKee has proven he can manage this offense.
With a spread of 4.5 points, we often see the favorites win but not cover. I took the Eagles as +4.5 underdogs and think they’re worth a shot on the moneyline market at home.
Pick: Eagles Probability: 34%
Confidence:🟢 Standard
COVERS INTEL: Dallas can't keep the chains moving in the past two outings, posting a collective 11-for-28 conversions on third and fourth downs (39%). That's a significant drop from the Cowboys' success rate of 52% on those pivot downs in the first four games.Game overview
Date: Monday, October 26, 2026
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia PA
TV: ESPN
Broadcast Team: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market allows you to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a future event. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets. Most prediction market apps allow users to "buy an outcome" for between 1 cent and $1.
The $1.00 rule: The foundation of prediction markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, NFL prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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