Few are surprised to see the Chiefs sitting at 3-0 heading into Week 4, but I doubt many tabbed the Raiders as unbeaten coming into this meeting.
This rivalry game features a pair of elite tight ends, so it's no surprise my Chiefs vs. Raiders prop picks target both as the centerpieces of their respective offensive game plans.
Here are my top NFL picks for today's AFC West clash, kicking off at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Best Chiefs vs Raiders props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kenneth Walker III 19+ rushing attempts |
46% |
 Brock Bowers 7+ receptions |
54% |
| Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards |
47% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Kenneth Walker III 19+ rushing attempts
Andy Reid knows the best way to slow down Maxx Crosby is for the Kansas City Chiefs to run the ball, and Kenneth Walker III will be the beneficiary.
He's averaging 21.7 attempts per game through the first three weeks, including 18+ carries in each game. That includes a 23-carry day against the Broncos, who also had a terrific pass rush Reid needed to negate.
PFF has the Las Vegas Raiders third in pass-rush grade, three spots ahead of Denver, but 13th in tackling. Missed tackles have been an issue, as the Raiders have allowed more than 3.1 yards after contact per carry to the last two lead backs faced.
I'm playing this up to 50%.
Prop pick #2: Brock Bowers 7+ receptions
Kansas City's defense utilizes man coverage on 47.2% of snaps, third-most in the league. Unless Steve Spagnuolo suddenly changes his tactics, Brock Bowers should have another big day.
The third-year tight end returned last week to catch 10 passes on 12 targets, including four catches on five targets against man coverage with an average depth of 12.0 yards per target. He was also the primary read all game by Kirk Cousins, who didn't target another Raider player more than four times.
Bowers was lined up wide on 16 snaps and ran 16 more routes from the slot, which will give him mismatches against whoever the Chiefs line up against him and makes it harder for them to shade a second defender to help out.
I'm playing this to 56%.
Prop pick #3: Travis Kelce 50+ receiving yards
This is playable to 54% as I expect Travis Kelce to have a monster game.
Let's ignore the fact that Kelce went for 59 yards last week despite having just two catches, his lowest yardage and target total of the season. Let's also ignore the fact that he's averaging 16.5 yards per catch despite an ADOT of just 6.9 yards from Patrick Mahomes.
What I won't ignore is how the Raiders got burned by Saints tight ends last week. Noah Fant went for 33 yds and a pair of TDs on four catches, while Juwan Johnson caught all eight of his targets for 53 yds and another pair of scores.
Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets, catches, and yards, and I won't be shocked if he were to double this total.
- Prop picks: 7-4, +2.71 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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