NFL survivor pools have long been a popular content for football fans, but what if you took a survivor pool... and made it for touchdowns?
Well, we've got the answer, as we run our first Covers NFL expert survivor pool!
Eight of our brightest football minds drafy one player each week to find paydirt — Week 3 saw seven of our eight experts correctly predict a TD, avoiding a strike — follow along with our team's selections this week as we look to go a perfect 8/8... and tail the NFL TD picks you also think will deliver!
Covers NFL Touchdown Survivor rules
- Random draft order each week for player selection (two analysts cannot have the same player in the same week).
- Each analyst chooses one player. Once he's selected, they cannot select him again this year.
- If your pick is correct: Gold star. If your pick is wrong: You get a strike.
- Three strikes... and you're out of the competition.
Covers NFL TD Survivor Picks: Week 4
| Draft No. | Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Inglis Jahmyr Gibbs |
75% |
| 2 | Jon Metler Jonathan Taylor |
70% |
| 3 | Dustin Saracini Derrick Henry |
67% |
| 4 | Joe Osborne  Chuba Hubbard |
53% |
| 5 | Jason Logan Bijan Robinson |
65% |
| 6 | Neil Parker Kenneth Walker III |
59% |
| 7 | Chris Vasile Christian McCaffrey |
62% |
| 8 | Rob PaulAmon-Ra St. Brown |
52% |
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Josh Inglis' TD play: Jahmyr Gibbs 75%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 1
The NFL OPOY favorite can't be held out of the endzone. Jahmyr Gibbs' current price implies 1.94 TDs, and his 2+ TD price is shorter than the Commanders ML at home vs. the Colts.
The only thing that sucks is waiting for Sunday night for my check.
Jon Metler's TD play: Jonathan Taylor 70%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 2
It’s an early game in London, England, so we’re going to lock in a green checkmark before anyone else’s player even takes the field — and talk trash through the entire 1:00 p.m. slate.
Taylor is primed to score 2+ touchdowns against this Commanders defense, so why wouldn't we use him in this survivor pool?
In all seriousness, he has one of the highest anytime touchdown probabilities on the board this Sunday.
Dustin Saracini's TD play: Derrick Henry 67%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 3
All week we've heard about how the Titans never offered him a contract in free agency, and you know what that means? Revenge game.
Derrick Henry is a workhorse in the red zone, and I wouldn't be surprised if he scored two.
Joe Osborne's TD play: Chuba Hubbard 53%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 4
Let's attack my favorite Over game of the week in an excellent spot for Chuba Hubbard, who has three TDs on the season.
The Lions are allowing the most TDs per game this season and have been horrendous in the red zone, while also allowing the highest explosive play rate in the league.
More NFL touchdown picks at Covers
Jason Logan's TD play: Bijan Robinson 65%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 5
Replacing the rusty lawn chairs at QB with Michael Penix Jr. helps keep defenses honest, springing Bijan Robinson for two TDs last week.
He faces a bad NOLA run stop, with injuries at LB, on Monday night. Plus, the Saints have allowed four rushing TDs to RBs already.
Neil Parker's TD play: Kenneth Walker III 59%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 6
Let's keep it simple: The Raiders are frauds, so give me Kenny Three Sticks to score six in Vegas.
Chris Vasile's TD play: Christian McCaffrey 62%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 7
Christian McCaffrey has already handled 35 carries for 166 yards and 3 TDs, while adding 13 catches for another 104 yards. The touchdown equity is obvious, but the receiving work is what makes him such a strong play: CMC doesn’t need one specific game script to get there.
Denver also just got shredded for 482 yards of offense by the Rams last week. If San Francisco moves the ball anywhere near that efficiently, McCaffrey should have multiple chances to cash.
Rob Paul's TD play: Amon-Ra St. Brown 52%
Week 4 draft spot: No. 8
Fishy to give the only guy who doesn't write about the NFL the last pick for a second straight week.
I'm going back to the WR well and taking Amon-Ra St. Brown with the 8th pick. Going with a former five-star recruit turned star college WR (who slid in the draft due to his perceived lack of speed) worked well for me last week — and like JSN, the Sun God even has an abbreviated nickname (ARSB).
The Lions play a Panthers team on SNF without their top two cornerbacks, and St. Brown already has 34 targets through three games (and 5 TDs).
Week 4 TD combo: Covers Survivor Pool edition
Let's put some extra juice into tailing our touchdown survivor picks! Put our TD picks together in a combo, with this week equaling a 30.8x payout!
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jonathan Taylor
Derrick Henry
Chuba Hubbard
Bijan Robinson
Kenneth Walker III
Christian McCaffrey
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Covers Weekly TD Survivor tracker
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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