The AFC West goes south of the border — wayyyyyyyy south — when the Los Angeles Chargers battle the Kansas City Chiefs in Brazil for this Week 1 opener Friday night.
While it’s just the first game of the schedule, this divisional clash could go a long way in determining the AFC pecking order. The AFC West is a tight race, and the Week 1 winner will have the inside track.
I give my early Chiefs vs. Chargers predictions and NFL picks in Sao Paulo on September 5.
Chiefs vs Chargers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Chiefs vs Chargers spread pick: Kansas City -3 (-115)
This Week 1 spread has been taking action since May. The line opened at a field goal and made a brief run to Kansas City -3.5 in late August before buyback on the underdog brought it back to -3.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been stewing since February, still reeling from a lopsided loss in the Super Bowl. A win over the Los Angeles Chargers would go a long way in shaking that stink off the franchise.
Rarely is L.A. outmatched at quarterback and head coach, but the combo of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid (with DC Steve Spagnuolo) is greater than Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh.
The Bolts’ 2024 defensive results were puffed up by some sub-par passers on the other sideline. The 2025 pass rush lost some teeth from a group that got to Mahomes for six sacks in two meetings last year.
Without pressure on the passer, Mahomes can make magic, and I’ll take that no matter where he’s playing.
Early Chiefs vs Chargers total pick: Under 45.5 (-110)
The Under in this game was one of my first bets of the NFL season, wagering Under 45.5 when lines went up in the spring. That number has stayed put as we close in on gameday. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more movement downward, considering the strengths of both offenses are behind schedule.
The Chargers’ run-hefty playbook just got new RB Najee Harris back from a Fourth of July fireworks accident. The Chargers offense is anchored in the ground game, looking to control tempo and possession against a Chiefs defense that got bullied on the ground in the back end of 2024 — including the playoffs.
The Chiefs’ passing game is missing suspended WR Rashee Rice and potentially rookie WR Jalen Royals, along with veteran Hollywood Brown working his way back from injury. K.C. was not an explosive attack in 2024 and is missing key weapons to start 2025.
The last three matchups between these rivals produced 36, 27, and 25 points, and defenses often have a leg up in the opening weeks of the schedule. I’m literally keeping an ear to the ground about field conditions at Corinthians Arena, after the grass for last year’s Brazilian opener was horrific. The league says it’s improved, but the league says a lot of things.
I loved the Under in May and still love it in September.
Chiefs vs Chargers odds
- Chiefs vs. Chargers spread: Chargers +3
- Chiefs vs. Chargers moneyline: Chiefs -165, Chargers +140
- Chiefs vs. Chargers Over/Under: 45.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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