Chiefs vs Chargers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 18: Blaine Magic Shocks Chargers

With the Kansas City Chiefs locked into the No. 3 spot in the AFC, Andy Reid will be sitting a handful of key starters, including Patrick Mahomes, making Sunday’s season finale an AFC West battle between Blaine Gabbert and Easton Stick. The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites in the NFL odds at SoFi Stadium. 

The Chargers were +13 home dogs vs. the Bills just two weeks ago and although Kansas City is sitting significant starters, is it really worth 16 points and do bettors want to lay -3.5 points with Stick and the Chargers? 

I break down the Week 18 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Chiefs and Chargers on January 7. 

Chiefs vs Chargers odds

Chiefs vs Chargers predictions

I understand downgrading the Kansas City Chiefs significantly in this spot as Andy Reid has stated that many starters, including Patrick Mahomes, will sit Sunday vs. the Los Angeles Chargers as they are locked into the No.3 spot. However, Buffalo was -13 in LA just two games ago and a 16.5-point swing might be overdoing it. 

As expected, with the Chiefs locked into the AFC’s No. 3 playoff seed, coach Andy Reid said some starters, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, will not play in Sunday’s regular season finale against the Chargers.

Veteran backup Blaine Gabbert will get his first start.

— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) January 3, 2024

Blaine Gabbert is not a no-body QB. He’s a former Top-10 pick who was very good with the Chiefs in the preseason completing 62% of his passes for 348 yards and five scores on 32 passes. In what will basically be a preseason game for the visitors, Gabbert has shown well. 

The Chiefs also went 2-1 SU in the tune-ups and the offense wasn’t bad either scoring at least 24 points in each game 97 points in total. Gabbert will likely be lacking key members, but it sounds like Travis Kelce could get a little run, Kadarius Toney is looking likely, and, let’s face it, there wasn’t a lot of star power to begin with on this offense so that talent pool between the top and bottom might not be that significant. 

There is also no way I’m laying 3.5 points with Easton Stick and the Chargers. The QB is 0-3 SU over three starts vs. Denver, Las Vegas, and Buffalo. His offensive weapons are also minimal with Keenan Allen likely out and Josh Palmer very questionable. Interim head coach Giff Smith said the chances of Allen playing are slim and Palmer has been limited with a concussion.

Making things worse for Los Angeles is the likely absence of green-dot linebacker Kenneth Murray who missed last week and was DNP early in the week. 

The Chargers are void of talent and have a little less motivation this week with nothing on the horizon and another let-down of a season in the books. I think the Chiefs are being downgraded too much here as they are still going to field a roster of players competing for roster spots. I’m also not betting on Easton Stick at -3.5 with a lack of receiver talent. 

My best bet: Chiefs +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Chiefs vs Chargers same-game parlay

Chiefs moneyline

Chiefs first-half moneyline (three-way)

Chiefs Over 2.5 touchdowns

+800 at bet365

Let's push some chips in with the KC offense that is getting absolutely undervalued in this spot, indoors, and vs. this LA defense. Since the 1-7 SU record began for the Chargers, it is the No.21 defense in EPA/play and No.26 in success rate. Gabbert is the better of the two starting QBs and he showed plenty of touch with the backups in the preseason throwing for five TDs on just 34 passes.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chiefs vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Chiefs were -6 home favorites back in Week 7 vs. LA who had a healthy Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. Now with the change of venue, Herbert changing to Stick, Allen changing to Quintin Johnston, and Andy Reid resting many starters, the Chiefs have swung to a 3.5-road dog with a total that has sunk to 35. 

Don’t expect to see many Chief skilled players such as Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Chris Jones. Travis Kelce might see a little work as he needs 14 yards for 1,000, but the big names will likely be out Sunday meaning it’s Blain Gabbert time.

I actually like the former high draft pick who looked good in the preseason and still has an elite coaching staff around him. I’d worry more if practice squad QB Chris Oladokun saw meaningful time, but Reid was noncommittal about the backup’s playing time for Sunday. Is Gabbert and his 48 NFL starts worse than Stick?

Just to bet against the Chiefs because of the personnel at +3.5 seems a bit harsh. Stick has not shown much, the offense is likely missing key pieces in Allen and Palmer, and the defense has helped contribute to a four-game losing streak and a 1-7 SU record across its last eight games. 

The Chargers were +13 just two weeks ago at home!

I wouldn’t feel great hitting this Over, even in the indoor setting, but LA has no home-field advantage, wants the season to end, and KC is the much better-coached team. Gabbert is also the better QB in this game if I had to make the call. If the Chiefs win 24 to 14, is it really going to be that big of a surprise?

Chiefs vs Chargers betting trend to know

The Los Angeles Chargers have scored last in zero of their last eight games at home (-9.65 Units / -100% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Chargers.

Chiefs vs Chargers game info

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