The Oklahoma City Thunder are on their heels in the NBA Finals, falling behind 2-1 to the Indiana Pacers heading into Game 4 inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday.
Despite a 26-point effort from Jalen Williams, OKC didn’t have enough to measure up to the depth of Indiana in Game 3. If the Thunder’s bench can’t provide pop, my Thunder vs. Pacers predictions believe it’s up to Williams and the starters to find another gear.
That means Williams ironing out his shots from beyond the arc, as I explain in my best NBA picks for June 13.
Who will win Thunder vs Pacers Game 4?
With the Pacers stunning the Thunder as home underdogs in Game 3, books are bracing for a rally from OKC. Oklahoma City has shown poise off a loss, and I see them taking this game on the road and making it a three-game series for the NBA Championship.
Thunder vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Jalen Williams Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+100 at bet365)
After two so-so showings in the NBA Finals, Jalen Williams looked much better on offense in the Oklahoma City Thunder's loss in Game 3 (if you ignore the four turnovers).
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander slow out of the blocks, the Thunder’s other star put up 26 points on 50% shooting — a needed correction after shooting a collective 11-for-33 in the opening two contests.
But even with Williams leading OKC in offense, his touch from beyond the arc remains cold, as he went 1-for-2 from deep in Game 3. The small forward is 3-for-11 for the series and is hitting at a 27% clip from outside going back to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals (4-for-15 from 3-point range).
Heading into the finals, one of the biggest X-factors in favor of the Indiana Pacers was their 3-point prowess. While the Thunder’s perimeter play was up-and-down, the Pacers brought a more consistent threat from distance, and that’s played out in this series with Indiana recording two more triples per game than OKC through three meetings.
Williams is a much better 3-point shooter than his recent performance would indicate. Before going chilly in that series finale versus Minnesota, the 6-foot-5 forward was connecting at a 32% rate in the postseason and knocked down two or more triples in 10 of his first 15 playoff games.
Williams has drawn tougher defenders in Pascal Siakam and Aaron Nesmith in this series. That said, he’s still seen his share of space on the perimeter.
Ten of his 11 total 3-point attempts are considered “open” or “wide open,” with no defenders within four or more feet. He’s made only three of those clean looks from long range, including 2 of 6 with no defenders within six or more feet.
Through three games with Indiana, Williams’ 3-point prop has closed at 1.5 makes O/U, but the vig on the Over has ranged from -135 in Game 1 to -125 in Game 2 to -140 in Game 3. His 3-point market was as high as Over 1.5 -175 for Game 5 of the WCF.
After four straight games with only one made triple, Williams’ Over 1.5 3-pointers is paying EVEN money at bet365.
Player projections for Game 4 range from 1.8 to 2.1 made shots from beyond the arc from Williams, solid value to buyback the Over after four straight Under 1.5 3-point winners.
Thunder vs Pacers same-game parlay
Jalen Williams 2+ 3-pointers made
Jalen Williams 5+ assists
Thunder moneyline
Williams took just two shots from beyond the arc in Game 3, but OKC needs big buckets from him. Projections are leaning heavily toward two makes from distance Friday.
Williams’ advanced stats showed seven potential assists in Game 3, despite recording only three dimes. Before that, he had five or more assists in 15 of his first 18 playoff games.
Oklahoma City is 18-2 SU off a loss on the year, including a perfect 5-0 SU off a loss in the playoffs.
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Thunder vs Pacers odds
Thunder vs Pacers live odds
Thunder vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -5.5 | Indiana +5.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -225 | Indiana +200
- Over/Under: Over 225 | Under 225
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
• Following Indiana’s win as a 5.5-point home underdog in Game 3, bookies opened the Pacers as 6-point pups inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Indiana is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS as a host during the NBA Playoffs.
• The Over/Under for Game 4 opened at 225.5 points — a half-point shorter than the closing number for Game 3, which stayed below the total. So far this series, the Pacers and Thunder have produced a 1-2 O/U count.
• According to Covers Consensus, 59% of picks are taking the points with the home side while 60% of total picks like the Over on Friday night.
Thunder vs Pacers trend
Oklahoma City is 4-4 SU as a road favorite in the NBA Playoffs but has yet to cover the spread in those eight outings as road chalk. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Pacers.
How to watch Thunder vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Friday, 6-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Thunder vs Pacers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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