Chiefs vs Buccaneers Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Evans Comes Back With a Bang

A rematch of Super Bowl LV closes out a busy Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 4.

It’s been a wild week in Tampa Bay after Hurricane Ian devastated parts of Florida and threatened to move this game to Minnesota. However, Sunday Night Football stays in the pirate ship, where the Buccaneers are short home underdogs in primetime.

Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay attack have been hampered by injuries since training camp but are starting to get bodies back, namely at receiver. That extra offense shows up just in time for this run-in with Kansas City, which could easily be undefeated if not for some gaffes against Indianapolis last Sunday.

I break down the spread and total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Chiefs at Buccaneers on October 2.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers best odds

Chiefs vs Buccaneers picks and predictions

Coming to the rescue of this Buccaneers offense in No. 1 receiver Mike Evans, who was suspended for Week 3 following a dust-up with long-time nemesis Marshon Lattimore of the Saints in Week 2.

Evans was battling a calf injury in the early weeks of the season, but that one-game ban could be just what the doctor ordered for Tom Brady’s top target. Evans told the media that he got to rest and recover “all the way”, which is saying something for a receiver that’s been often injured during his pro career.

When healthy, Evans is one of the best and most versatile receivers in the NFL. He has the route running and strength to catch short pass inside the hash marks, and the speed and height to burn defenders on go-routes or just “jumpball” them for contested throws downfield.

His receiving yards total for Week 4 is sitting as low as 66.5 yards, which seems short considering his skill set, health, and opponent. Evans has gone Over his receiving yards total in four of his last five outings going back to 2021. The lone Under came against NOLA in Week 2 when he was tossed early into the fourth quarter, leaving with 61 yards – just shy of his prop total of 65.5. 

Evans will be a sight for sore eyes when it comes to Brady and this passing game. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said the team’s offensive woes are anchored in bad third-and-long scenarios and the focus in Week 4 will be to get better on first and second downs.

Evans was a monster on first downs in 2021, collecting 28 of his total 114 receptions in those scenarios for 379 yards. That helped make Tampa Bay the No. 2 first-down offense in DVOA at Football Outsiders. So far in 2022, his first down numbers have been tempered, but he’s faced two very good defenses in Dallas and New Orleans and is now back to 100%.

Kansas City’s front seven has been impressive through three weeks, but the secondary is still a work in progress. The Chiefs lack a lockdown defender against the pass and have gotten eaten up by opponents’ top targets. Kansas City ranks 29th in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs, giving up 8.3 passes per game for an average of 76 yards.

Evans comes into Week 4 on a mission, taking responsibility for losing his cool and missing last week’s close loss to Green Bay. He’ll be anxious to do something positive and Brady will give him plenty of chances to do so.

My best bet: Mike Evans receiving yards Over 66.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Chiefs vs Buccaneers spread analysis

The lookahead line for this marquee matchup hung at Bucs -2.5 this summer. But much has changed since then. 

Injuries to the Tampa Bay offensive line and WR corps have left the Buccaneers’ once-mighty scoring attack sputtering through the opening three weeks of action, managing a grand total of only 51 points. The Chiefs, on the other hand, continue to put up tallies but mustered just 17 points in a Week 3 loss to the Colts. However, that downtick had more to do with special teams miscues and turnovers than a lack of production.

The official Week 4 opener hit the board Sunday night, with Kansas City set as a 2.5-point road favorite. That spread grew to as large as -3 on Monday before buyback on the Bucs snatched up the field goal and professional betting groups grabbed the home dog — getting out ahead of any positive injury updates. As it stands Friday morning, Tampa Bay is aiming to have some targets back for Week 4.

The spread has since moved to pick’em across the industry despite some books reporting one-sided play on the visitor. WynnBET books are reporting 73% of bets and more than 70% of handle riding on Kansas City but have respected that market move toward Tampa Bay, dealing pick’em heading into the weekend.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead total for this non-conference clash was 53 points in the offseason, but with the Buccaneers’ offensive woes, that total has tumbled. 

The official opening Over/Under hit the board as high as 48.5 on Sunday night and instantly took Under money, running the number down to as low as 44 points by noon on Monday. There has been some buyback on the Over, which has pumped this total back to 46 points at some books.

While the Tampa Bay offense is underperforming, the team’s defense continues to be the backbone of the franchise. The Bucs' stop unit has limited foes to a mere 0.141 points per play — lowest in the NFL — and ranks out No. 1 in DVOA at Football Outsiders.

The Chiefs’ stop unit is not to be overlooked either. Kansas City has complemented its offensive efforts with a disruptive defense, namely a pass rush generating a 35.8% pressure rate (second-highest) and tallying 10 sacks in the first three games of 2022. The Chiefs have stymied some respectable offenses in that span (Arizona, L.A. Chargers, Indianapolis) and sit ninth in Defensive DVOA entering Week 4.

According to BetMGM books, 65% of bets and 63% of money is riding on the Under in this game as we head into the weekend. Primetime games have finished 3-8 Over/Under so far in 2022.

The remaining weather from Hurricane Ian will have cleared the Tampa area by Sunday night, with the forecast calling for clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the high 60s.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers betting trend to know

Tom Brady and the Bucs got the best of Kansas City in Super Bowl LV, winning 31-9 as 3-point underdogs. Since Brady’s arrival in Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers have been solid against non-conference competition with a 9-1 SU record and 7-3 ATS mark versus the AFC. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Buccaneers.

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