Chargers vs Broncos Week 18 Picks and Predictions: Wilson Hits the Offseason With a Final Indignity

Russell Wilson's first season in Denver has been an outright disaster. After his ego saw him depart Seattle, waning physical skills have seen him make plenty of mistakes with the Broncos — and our NFL picks expect another vs. the Chargers.

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2023 8:27 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Chargers travel to Mile High to face the Broncos in this Week 18 AFC West clash. Back when the schedules were released, we expected both the Chargers and Broncos to be hot on the heels of the Chiefs but it hasn’t quite happened in Denver. 

Could we see the Broncos cause an upset? Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos.

Chargers vs Broncos best odds

Chargers vs Broncos picks and predictions

Russell Wilson spent a decade in Seattle, playing 158 games for the Seahawks, throwing for 292 touchdowns, and becoming one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the game. In that time, he only threw 87 interceptions, an average of under nine per season. Now through just 14 games played, he’s on 10 and, crucially, only 13 touchdowns. 

In Seattle, he was often at his best when he escaped the pocket and improvised, using his legs to extend plays, but with the Broncos, we’ve often seen him making more mistakes and taking far riskier throws when he’s been outside of the pocket. While the Chargers might rest Justin Herbert and potentially more starters, this is still a pass rush that will put him under immense pressure.

In his two games since returning from injury he’s thrown just two touchdowns, been sacked 10 times, and thrown four interceptions. He’s going to be in for a hard game on Sunday and at -104 I’m happy to wager on him throwing another misplaced pass to finish his season in the manner that he has spent the duration of it.

My best bet: Russell Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions (-104 at Caesars)

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Chargers vs Broncos spread analysis

When the line opened for this game, it was the 10-6 Chargers who were favorites but since opening as 3-point favorites they’ve slipped to 3-point underdogs.

The Chargers hold the fifth seed, which gives them a favorable tie in the playoffs against either the Jaguars or Titans. The Ravens are tied with the Chargers but sixth on a tiebreaker because of conference record. With the Ravens playing the Bengals before this game kicks off on Sunday, it means that the Chargers won’t need to play Herbert if the Bengals win.

For that reason, I’d recommend parking any spread bets on this game until we hear more news on Sunday and we know exactly how both the Ravens and Chargers stand.

Chargers vs Broncos Over/Under analysis

We’ve not seen a huge amount of movement in the total points line, despite the uncertainty around the status of Herbert. The line opened at 40 points and has only dropped half a point down to 39.5 in that time. 

As with the spread, this is a market that I’d rather avoid betting on until we know a bit more about how the Chargers will line up but it’s worth noting that the Under is 5-0 in the Chargers’ past five games and 4-0 in their past four against AFC opponents. 

Chargers vs Broncos betting trend to know

The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their past four games following a loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Broncos.

Chargers vs Broncos game info

Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Date: Sunday, January 8, 2023
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Broncos +3, 40

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