Cardinals vs Rams Week 10 Picks and Predictions: Rams Charge to Early Lead

The Arizona Cardinals (3-6) are slowly watching their playoff hopes dwindle away after dropping four of their last five. The defense has been particularly worrisome, allowing 30+ points in three straight games now.

They will face off against the fellow NFC West Los Angeles Rams (3-5), who have faced a similarly unfortunate fate as of late, having also lost four of their last five. Conversely, the Rams' offense has been the problem as of late, producing 14 or fewer points in all four of those losses.

Which of these two NFC West teams will turn things around in Week 10? Find out in our NFL picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Rams on Sunday, November 13.

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Cardinals vs Rams picks and predictions

Last February, the Los Angeles Rams were on top of the football world following their Super Bowl win. Their roster construction experiment of sending off draft picks with reckless abandon in return for top-end talent (Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, etc) ultimately paid off, and they seemed poised to remain a serious contender heading into the season.

What they have put on the field through the first half of the 2022 season has been a complete abomination. Their eighth-ranked offense by DVOA (including ranks of seventh and 12th in passing and rushing respectively) has cratered all the way down to 26th, including the third-worst rushing offense this season.

In hindsight, offseason murmurs that Stafford's offseason procedure on his injured elbow had not gone as planned should have been given more weight. The second-half boost that the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. provided was likely understated. And the hope that aging veteran Allen Robinson could replicate his presence was possibly a bit lofty given his extremely disappointing 2021 campaign.

Granted, the offensive line has been ravaged by injuries and that is certainly a massive pain for the team. It has made Stafford's job exponentially more difficult, and the running game is almost entirely non-existent. It's a core issue that neither a returning Cam Akers nor a newly-activated Kyren Williams is going to alleviate.

What might help is the defense they get to potentially tee off against on Sunday. The Arizona Cardinals have surrendered 30+ points in each their last three games and it's no wonder they rank in the bottom third of the league in DVOA. All in all, they certainly pose a lesser threat than the third-toughest schedule of defenses the Rams have faced thus far according to DVOA.

And if the Rams can take advantage of that early, the Cardinals will likely be playing from behind early given their trend of getting the ball rolling too late. The Cardinals have averaged 8.2 points in the first half, good for the sixth-fewest in the league. The second half is an entirely different story, with their 13.7 points per second half ranking third in the league.

Funnily enough, the opposite is true for Sean McVay's Rams and frequent watchers of the team are very familiar with his tendency to really lay off the gas late. The Rams average just 5.4 points in the second half, which is second-worst only to the Titans (4.1).

Knowing these splits and tendencies provides a clear value proposition for pregame wagers, and a potential second-half angle in the opposite direction.

My best bet: Rams first half -0.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Cardinals vs Rams spread analysis

The spread opened at Rams -3.5 and has since moved to either a juiced -2.5 or a more even -3 offering.

Heading into Sunday the Rams sport the second-worst record against the spread at 2-5-1. The often ridiculed "home field" of the Rams has proven to have some weight thus far, with Los Angeles going 1-3 ATS as home favorites.

Arizona has gone 4-5 against the spread thus far but has gone 2-1 as a road underdog this season. This comes a year after it went 6-1 in the same split.

Cardinals vs Rams Over/Under analysis

The total opened as high as 44 at some shops and is now down to 40 at every book.

Given the Rams' inability to score this season, it should come as no surprise that they have gone 6-2 towards the Under.

Arizona started the season favoring the Under heavily, going 4-1-1 that way in its first six. But largely in part due to their extreme defensive deficiencies, the Cards have gone Over in three straight heading into Week 10.

The two did play to a total of 32 in Week 3 when the total closed at 49.

Cardinals vs Rams betting trend to know

The Cardinals have gone 9-4 to the Under in the last three years as a road underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Cardinals vs. Rams.

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