My top Bills vs. Vikings prediction for Monday Night Football is targeting the Under 44.5 tonight.
The Buffalo (63% win probability) offense is dealing with key injuries up and down the roster, while Minnesota trots out backup QB Carson Wentz.
Check out my NFL picks for Monday, Nov. 9, and don't miss kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
TOP Pick
Bills vs Vikings prediction tonight: Under 44.5
The Minnesota Vikings have flown under the radar as one of the best Under teams in the NFL over the last 12 months. They've hit the Under in 16 of their last 19 games, generating a cool 60% ROI.
This 44.5-point total has seen some movement to the Under elsewhere, crossing the key number of 44, and was as high as 47.5 on the lookahead when Kyler Murray was expected under center.
I understand Josh Allen is the NFL MVP odds favorite, and he's had success against Brian Flores' defense in the past, posting a 16:2 TD-to-INT ratio over six games. However, the combination of Carson Wentz, injuries to the Buffalo Bills' offensive line, and this blitz-heavy defense has me leaning toward the Under.
Buffalo could be without two starting offensive linemen against this dangerous defense. Left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson both missed practice this week and are questionable, while right tackle Spencer Brown is cleared after missing Week 8. To make matters worse, wide receiver Joshua Palmer is out, and wide receiver Khalil Shakir missed Friday for personal reasons before returning to practice Saturday. D.J. Moore was limited this week but is also cleared.
Buffalo could put up 25 points, and this could still be a comfortable Under with how ugly Wentz and this offense have looked. The Bills' defense pressures QBs at the third-highest rate, and this was already a Bottom-5 offense with Murray under center.
COVERS INTEL: The left side of the Bills' offensive line did not practice Friday, which is bad news vs. a Minnesota defense that blitzes at a league-high 73% of the time. This unit also leads the league in opposing QBR, points, expected points allowed, sacks, and QB pressure.
Bills vs Vikings combo
Both tight ends are projecting Over their reception totals, with T.J. Hockenson at 4.94 and Dalton Kincaid at 4.14. Hockenson saw four targets in Wentz's only start in the rain in Chicago, but was also targeted five times in the season opener.
He should see more opportunities with Wentz under center than he did with Murray.
Kincaid has things back on track with 11 catches over his last two games, and the injuries to Buffalo's other pass catchers only help his outlook. He should be back in that 6-8 target range.
Carson Wentz is plus-money to throw an interception, which is great value on its own, especially if Minnesota is chasing points as a 3-point home underdog. The extra day of rest should also benefit Buffalo's defense more than Minnesota's offense.
Wentz threw five interceptions in five starts last season.
Bills vs Vikings combo
- T.J. Hockenson Over 4.5 receptions
- Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions
- Carson Wentz Over 0.5 interceptions
Bills vs Vikings touchdown prop: Jordan Addison
The loss of Murray doesn't significantly change my outlook on this play, but any quality receiver facing this Buffalo defense at 3.5x or better is worth a look.
I got Jordan Addison at 4.0x after he saw eight targets and accounted for 52% of Minnesota's air yards in Week 8. As a 3-point underdog in an indoor game, the Vikings could be forced to push the ball downfield, creating a favorable setup for Addison at this price.
No team allows more receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers than the Bills at 1.35 per game. They're also a Bottom-7 unit in both dropback EPA and dropback success rate.
Bills vs Vikings player prop: T.J. Hockenson Over 39.5 receiving yards
The Minnesota tight end projects for 48.8 receiving yards Monday night. The likely passing-game script offers multiple paths to get there, including potential garbage-time production in an indoor game that should boost passing volume and efficiency.
In Wentz's two starts for Minnesota this season, the tight end was the No. 2 option in the passing game, finishing second in receiving yards in both games, including that ugly 9-3 outdoor matchup in Chicago.
Buffalo ranks in the Bottom 10 in yardage allowed to opposing tight ends, and Hockenson has virtually no competition for snaps, playing 82% of them last week.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Bills vs Vikings market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Bills vs. Vikings prediction.
- Top picks: 5-2 +2.78 units
- Combos: 0-7, -7 units
Bills vs Vikings odds tonight
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bills -3.5 | Vikings +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (50%) | Under 45.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Bills 63% | Vikings 37%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board! You can also compare live NFL prediction prices or see our NFL moneyline picks for every Week 9 game.
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Bills vs Vikings weather
This is an indoor game.
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Bills vs Vikings trend to know
The Vikings have hit the Under in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.70 Units / 60% ROI). Find more NFL trends for Bills vs. Vikings.
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How to watch Bills vs Vikings tonight
| Location | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minn. |
| Date | Monday, Nov. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bills vs Vikings latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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