We’re rolling into Week 9 with a great eye on the NFL touchdown props market.
Sitting at over 15 units of profit on the season, it’s been a good run finding value in the end zone. This week’s slate is loaded with juicy matchups, questionable defenses, and a few long-shot prices that deserve a look.
Let’s dive into my latest NFL picks to find out which players are most likely to hit paydirt.
Best Week 9 TD props
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 Panthers vs  Packers |
Wilson +325 |
 Vikings vs  Lions |
Jones +220 |
 Colts vs  Steelers |
Taylor 2+ +210 |
 Chargers vs  Titans |
Dike +300 |
 Falcons vs  Patriots |
Diggs +155 |
 Broncos vs  Texans |
Harvey +350 |
 49ers vs  Giants |
Slayton +230 |
 Bears vs  Bengals |
Monangai +225 |
 Jaguars vs  Raiders |
Hunter +230 |
 Saints vs  Rams |
Parkinson +800 |
 Chiefs vs  Bills |
Allen +110 |
 Seahawks vs  Commanders |
Charbonnet +110 |
 Cardinals vs  Cowboys |
Knight +145 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Panthers vs Packers
Emanuel Wilson (+325 at DraftKings) B+
Josh Jacobs didn’t look fully healthy Sunday night, managing just 33 yards on 13 carries while working through a calf injury. Emanuel Wilson, meanwhile, showed more burst, picking up 61 yards on 11 carries and matching Jacobs with four red-zone opportunities.
This game could get one-sided if Bryce Young can’t play, which opens up more scoring chances for Wilson. In a strong offense facing a soft matchup, Wilson’s anytime touchdown at +295 to +300 has solid value.
The main risk is volume — he could see as few as six carries — but with the team listed as a 13-point favorite, Wilson is worth a play, especially if Young is ruled out.
Vikings vs Lions
Aaron Jones ( +220 at DraftKings) A
It looks like J.J. McCarthy will get the start in Week 9. That’s not ideal news for Vikings fans, but it’s still an upgrade from Max Brosmer.
Aaron Jones returned last week and immediately took control of the backfield, leading in snap share (53%), route share (44%), and carries (five). The offense struggled overall, so volume was limited, but Jones is the back-to-back on Sunday. He was the only running back to see a red-zone carry and also drew a target.
Don’t read too much into the low carry count, as starters were pulled late. The key takeaway is usage — Jones handled nearly two-thirds of the backfield opportunities, signaling he’s the clear lead option. With the potential negative game script and Jones' role as a pass catcher, I'd play this to +180.
Colts vs Steelers
Jonathan Taylor 2+ TDs ( +210 at DraftKings) B+
I haven’t hit the multiple TDs yet, but Week 9 sets up perfectly against the Steelers and their No. 31 EPA/play defense.
Jonathan Taylor is a monster — just named AFC Player of the Month after putting up 500 yards and 10 TDs over the last four games. I’m all over the Colts’ team total Over 26.5, and Taylor should get plenty of goal-line work.
Daniel Jones isn’t stealing any touches near the goal line, and JT is getting basically every running back opportunity. Pittsburgh has given up 68 points over its last two games, and another 30-piece is coming their way from the league’s hottest offense.
Chargers vs Titans
Chimere Dike ( +300 at DraftKings) B
The Chargers lost three starters to injury last week, including cornerback Tarheeb Still and defensive leader Derwin James.
With the Titans up next, there’s little reason to rush James back. Given the defensive injuries, a likely negative game script for Tennessee, and Calvin Ridley still not practicing, Chimere Dike at +300 stands out as a solid play.
If Ridley sits again, Dike will operate as the WR1 after posting 7 catches for 93 yards last week, leading all Titans pass catchers. His snap share jumped to 88% from a season average of 49%, and the offense ran 3-WR sets on 79% of plays.
There’s also some quiet optimism about this offense speeding up under the new head coach. Tennessee ran eight more plays than its season average last week, despite facing another game-trailing script.
Falcons vs Patriots
Stefon Diggs (+155 at DraftKings) A-
Drake Maye is a legit MVP contender entering Week 9, and the Falcons' defense is not as good as we thought after the Dolphins wacked them last week. The potential loss of safety, Jessie Bates, is also a huge bonus for Maye and this New England offense.
Stefon Diggs is the target this week at +155 with a buy to +135/+140. Diggs' role is getting stronger, and his work in the red zone is very valuable, as this is a very inefficient running team, especially near the goal line.
Diggs tied for the position lead in RZ targets last week with three and brought one in for a score.
Broncos vs Texans
RJ Harvey (+350 at DraftKings) A+
RJ Harvey finished with two rushing touchdowns and one receiving score last week, where he handled 50% of the red-zone opportunities. I’m back on him to score again at +350 (compared to +130 for his backfield mate).
Harvey’s snap share was just 28%, but he was heavily involved when on the field, converting both of his opportunities inside the five into touchdowns. That’s simply too long a price for a talented rookie with defined red-zone work.
The matchup is tough, but that’s baked into the number. Harvey closed at +300, +270, and +240 over the last three weeks, yet the market hasn’t adjusted for his expanding role. I'm playing this to +280.
49ers vs Giants
Darius Slayton ( +230 at DraftKings) B
The 49ers’ defense is still banged up, and the loss of Cam Skattebo puts more pressure on the New York passing game. With TE Daniel Bellinger nursing a neck injury, Darius Slayton could see more looks after returning last week as the team’s only true deep threat against the Eagles.
Slayton had a long touchdown wiped out by a questionable offensive pass interference call against Philly, and this Giants offense has quietly been the best red-zone unit over the last three weeks, scoring on nearly 90% of trips inside the 20.
New York could be a sneaky play to put up 25+ points against San Francisco. Tyrone Tracy can keep the run game steady, and Slayton has the upside to finish drives. I’d play the Giants team total Over or 25+ points at +200.
Bears vs Bengals
Kyle Monangai (+225 at DraftKings) A-
With a 51.5-point total, these touchdown props are priced about as tight as it gets. Still, one number stands out — Kyle Monangai at +225.
D’Andre Swift played just 50% of the snaps last week while managing a groin injury, opening the door for Monangai. He logged seven carries in Week 8, but just a week earlier had 13 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown.
The matchup doesn’t hurt either — everyone’s finding the end zone against the Bengals lately (even the Jets). Given the pricing on other Chicago skill players, Monangai to score at +200 or better is my favorite TD look in what should be a high-scoring game.
Jaguars vs Raiders
Travis Hunter (+230 at DraftKings) A+
Saints vs Rams
Colby Parkinson (+800 at DraftKings) B
I’m taking my Week 9 big swing indoors, and it’s definitely not with the Saints’ offense. The Rams are coming off a bye, and the last time bettors saw them, they were spreading the ball around to every tight end on the roster.
Colby Parkinson played nearly 50% of the snaps and caught all three of his targets for 47 yards. In comparison, Tyler Higbee — priced in the +300s — played just 37% of the snaps and totaled only 19 yards.
Parkinson has also carved out a role in the red zone. Over the Rams’ last four games, he’s matched Higbee in red-zone targets.
The Rams’ tight end situation is messy, which makes it the perfect spot to take a shot on a long-odds scorer.
Chiefs vs Bills
Josh Allen (+110 at DraftKings) A+
It’s MVP vs. MVP, and I’m backing Josh Allen to find the end zone at plus money.
Allen has scored four rushing touchdowns in as many games against the Chiefs, and he is coming off a game where he ran just three times for seven yards — but two of those carries went for scores. The Bills have their own version of the tush push, and when they get inside the five, James Cook TD bettors have every reason to worry, as Allen continues to rack up short-yardage touchdowns.
Last week, his TD price closed at -120, and it’s been as short as -165 this season. In a high-profile matchup like this, Allen should rise to the occasion at home, where he’s scored 37 rushing touchdowns in 58 career games. I
It's an A+ at +110 and I'd play it to -120.
Seahawks vs Commanders
Zach Charbonnet (+110 at DraftKings) A
There’s nothing wrong with taking the square side in a high-scoring matchup, and I’m sticking with the Seahawks’ red-zone favorite — not the longer-priced Kenneth Walker.
Since Week 4, Zach Charbonnet has 15 red-zone carries to Walker’s eight, and he’s turned four of them into touchdowns while Walker hasn’t scored once.
Inside the 5-yard line, the split is even more telling — seven carries for Charbonnet to just one for Walker. He’s the back you want to bet on to find the end zone Sunday night.
Cardinals vs Cowboys
Bam Knight (+145 at DraftKings) A+
Week 9 anytime touchdown parlay
Kimani Vidal
Tyrone Tracy
Travis Etienne Jr.
Josh Allen
Zach Charbonnet
The Chargers are going to score a ton.
Tracy will see all the RZ work for the Giants.
Etienne has a great price in a favorable matchup.
Allen is scoring vs. Patrick Mahomes at home.
Charbonnet is the man inside the 20s for the Seahawks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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