Week 9 of the NFL season is here, and we have another exciting slate of games ahead. I've broken down the data and crunched the numbers to create my first touchdown scorer picks for this week's games, including a pair of AFC West running backs and one of the best tight ends in the league.
Check out the rest of our NFL picks before kickoff, too.
Best Week 9 first touchdown scorer picks
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Jonah Coleman
Kenneth Walker III
George KittlePercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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First TD scorer prediction #1: Jonah Coleman
With RJ Harvey on IR, the Denver Broncos backfield is a straight shootout between Jonah Coleman and JK Dobbins.
Coleman out-carried Dobbins only 11-7 last week, but the difference in what they did with those touches was huge. Coleman averaged nearly double Dobbins' 1.9 yards per carry and was hugely efficient in the receiving game, with 63 yards on four receptions.
Coleman scored his first NFL touchdown last week and is the smart play to open the scoring here. He was on the field for 68% of the offense's snaps and ran a route on 47% of the team's dropbacks. Given his success, that workload should only grow as he cements this as his backfield. Only one team has allowed more touchdowns to opposing running backs than the Carolina Panthers, which bodes well.
- Matchup: Broncos vs. Panthers
- Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 8, at 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium
- TV: CBS
First TD scorer prediction #2: Kenneth Walker III
Last week saw another heavy workload for Kenneth Walker III, who had his fourth game of the season with more than 20 carries and added five targets. He's now gone two games without scoring after finding the end zone eight times in the first five games of the season. He can take advantage of a New York Jets defense that is allowing 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game.
Walker has opened the scoring in two of his seven games this season and remains a key focal point in the Kansas City Chiefs' offense. Last week, he was on the field for 81% of offensive snaps and forced five missed tackles.
With the Chiefs tied for the biggest favorite on Sunday, they'll likely open the scoring, and Walker is the most likely to do so.
- Matchup: Jets vs. Chiefs
- Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 8, at 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: CBS
First TD scorer prediction #3: George Kittle
George Kittle might just be a match made in first-TD heaven. The San Francisco 49ers are tied with the Chiefs as the biggest favorites of the day. Even better news is that their opponent has struggled with tight ends, with the Las Vegas Raiders already giving up eight touchdowns to the position.
Not that Kittle needs a weak defense to score. He has five touchdowns on the season, including the opening score once already. He comes into this fresh off the bye, and his last game was his most productive of the year, with season highs for yardage, receptions, and targets.
- Matchup: Raiders vs. 49ers
- Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 8, at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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