Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers will try to exorcise some playoff demons when they host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Divisional Round.
Against San Francisco in the postseason, Rodgers is 0-3 in his career but this time the Packers have the advantage of being the No. 1 seed in the NFC and are coming off a bye, while the Niners will play their third consecutive road game.
But the question is, who will cover the 6-point spread? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Packers on Saturday, January 22.
49ers vs Packers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The 49ers opened this matchup as 4.5-point underdogs, but after suffering some key injuries in the Wild Card Round, early bettors have favored the Packers and have moved the line to 6. The total hit the board at 47.5 and is still hovering around that number as of Wednesday afternoon.
49ers vs Packers predictions
- Prediction: 49ers +6 (-110)
- Prediction: Over 47 (-110)
- Best bet: Deebo Samuel Over 38.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Best bet: Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (+125)
Predictions made on 1/19/2022 at 8:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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49ers vs Packers game info
• Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
• Date: Saturday, January 22, 2022
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
49ers at Packers betting preview
49ers: Nick Bosa DE (Questionable), Ambry Thomas CB (Out), Jordan Willis DE (Out).
Packers: Jaire Alexander CB (Questionable), David Bakhtiari T (Questionable), Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR (Doubtful).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Packers.
49ers vs Packers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
The Green Bay Packers were the best team in the NFC all season. Aaron Rodgers is the NFL MVP favorite after a season that saw him throw 4,115 yards while completing 68.9 percent of his passes with 37 touchdowns compared to just seven picks. Rodgers led the Packers to a 13-4 record, winning their last five meaningful games.
In short, they earned that first-round bye.
And no doubt, the extra rest was a big help. The Packers are expected to get back the likes of David Bakhtiari, Za'Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander. Bakhtiari almost seems like a luxury for an offense that ranks second in DVOA.
On the other side, the 49ers enter this game pretty banged up as they try to win their third straight road game, playing their ninth roadie in their last 11 games overall. That includes an impressive showing in last week's win over the Dallas Cowboys.
Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a couple of injuries, but it sounds like he’ll tough it out. The bigger concern might be the statuses of Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, two of the Niners' most productive defenders. Not having them would be a big blow to their chances of slowing Rodgers.
The key to this game will be what Green Bay will do on defense. The Packers will try their best to take away the run and figure out how hurt Jimmy G really is. The problem is that stopping the run was pretty much what Green Bay was worst at this season. Their run defense ranked 28th in DVOA and was next to last in opponent yards per rush.
That means the combination of Deebo Samuel (who looks like one of the best players in the NFL at the moment) and Elijah Mitchell could be a problem for the Packers.
And maybe that’s the most surprising thing about this matchup: while the Packers offense is great, the 49ers' isn’t far behind, ranking fifth in DVOA, which includes the fifth-ranked passing attack. And that was on display back in their Week 3 meeting, where the Packers needed a last-second field goal to defeat the Niners 30-28 in San Francisco.
If Jimmy G is able to avoid what seems like his patented one or two “what the f#%$ was that" throws per game, this one should be tight. I think he can. Which means we’re taking the points.
Prediction: 49ers +6 (-110)
For the total, we're getting a number that’s 3.5 points lower than the meeting from earlier in the year, and that game ended up seeing 58 combined points scored. So, seeing the number at 47 is a little surprising.
For starters, the Niners have been one of the best offenses in football in the second half of the season, averaging 26 points over their last 12 games. Not coincidently, this lines up with Kyle Shanahan unlocking the cheat code that is Deebo Samuel.
The WR/RB combo ran five times for 36 yards in a 31-10 win over the Rams in Week 9. Since then, he piled up 501 over his last eight games, including 75 last week against the Cowboys. And now he goes against a suspect Packers run D.
Meanwhile, the Packers' offense was absolutely rolling down the stretch, putting up 34 points per game in their last six games that mattered. Rodgers was the catalyst for that, throwing for 1,791 yards with 18 touchdowns and no picks over that stretch. Even though the Niners' defense is solid it can be thrown on a bit, ranking 16th in DVOA against the pass.
There should be enough scoring in this Divisional matchup to send this Over the total.
Prediction: Over 47 (-110)
Rushing to make an impact
Deebo Samuel is arguably the most dynamic player in the NFL at the moment, so you know we are going to take a deeper look at him with our best bet.
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers deploy Samuel as both a wide receiver and a running back, and the results have been phenomenal. He’s not only the Niners’ most important player but one of the best players in the entire NFL.
Since Shanahan made the commitment to running the ball with Samuel back in Week 10, he has carried the ball 63 times for 412 yards, including 10 attempts for 72 yards against the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round.
That equates to a whopping 6.6 yards per attempt and now he’ll face a Packers defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against the rush and allows the second most yards per carry in the league.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 38.5 rushing yards (-115)
Going for six
On top of that, Shanahan loves using Samuel in the red zone, and it has resulted in a ton of scores. Samuel has found the end zone in 12 of the 17 games he played this season. Overall, he scored six receiving touchdowns and nine rushing for the Niners.
So, we are going with a dynamic duo of best bets for Samuel in this game as we’ll take him to score in addition to going Over his rushing yard total.
Pick: Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown (+125)