You have to question Virginia’s mindset heading into the Gator Bowl against Missouri.
The Cavaliers needed just one win in the ACC Championship against an average, unranked Duke squad and couldn’t deliver. Now they run into a Missouri team playing in its fifth straight bowl under Eli Drinkwitz and aiming for a third consecutive victory.
I break down the matchup in my Virginia vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks for Saturday December 27.
Virginia vs Missouri predictions for the Gator Bowl
Who will win the Gator Bowl?
I like the Tigers to do enough. For me it’s as simple as feeling like they have a more talented roster. Missouri's RB is just 68 yards shy of the school's single-season rushing record, I like him to break it en route to a win.
Virginia vs Missouri best bet: Under 44.5 (-115)
I would have probably bet the Under without knowing the context of the situation and player availability, now all of that is just gravy. I made this number 40.5 so I’ll happily grab it for my best bet in what I expect to be a grind-it-out game.
As mentioned at the offset, I don’t really know what to expect from the Virginia Cavaliers. The drop-off in mindset isn’t what it would be for most teams because UVA didn't enter the year with real playoff hopes.
However, you still have to wonder just how much a loss to a team you’re better than in the biggest of spots can affect your approach for a "meaningless" bowl game. Any apathy about playing in this game will always lead to an inefficient offense so it’s pretty relevant when discussing the total.
Anecdotal talk aside though, the matchup screams low-scoring and clock-bleeding.
We’ve seen what the Missouri Tigers offense looks like a few times this season with Beau Pribula and it’s not nearly as effective. It also leans much more into the run, an aspect that’s even more appealing with the Tigers' receiving room being very thin. That will shorten possessions.
On the other side the Virginia offense appears shaky with a few key opt-outs, all of which matters against a Missouri defense that has been a top-tier unit this season.
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Virginia vs Missouri same-game parlay
There are some real paper tiger aspects to this Virginia team both based on metrics and the eye test. They were very fortunate to be in a position to make the college football playoff and couldn’t even take advantage of that luck.
All of that to say I’ll take Missouri to cover in my same-game parlay.
The Tigers will have the best player on the field in Ahmad Hardy and I expect him to have a big day.
Virginia vs Missouri SGP
- Under 44.5
- Missouri -4.5
Virginia vs Missouri game predictions
Virginia vs Missouri spread prediction
It’s a very one dimensional offensive group coming into this one but I think Missouri’s backfield will take over in this matchup.
Virginia vs Missouri Over/Under prediction
I like this game to be low scoring and the Under is my best bet, playable to 40.5
Virginia vs Missouri odds
- Spread: Virginia +4.5 (-114) | Missouri -4.5 (-106)
- Moneyline: Virginia +154 | Missouri -184
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
Virginia vs Missouri trend to know
Virginia has not hit the Game Total Over in any of their last 8 games (-8.85 Units / -100% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Virginia vs Missouri.
How to watch Virginia vs Missouri
| Location | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date | Saturday, December 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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