There’s a new starting QB at Michigan, and he’ll be thrown into the fire with his first start against a USC team that’s in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation.
In our USC vs. Michigan predictions, we’re expecting a tight battle between two teams with opposite problems. Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, September 21.
USC vs Michigan predictions
Early spread lean
Michigan +6 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
As the week progresses and kickoff approaches, expect this line to see plenty of movement. I’d think it would be closer to USC -4.5 by Saturday, and at that point, I would potentially take the Trojans.
Ultimately, I believe USC will pull this game out, but it won’t be like Texas’ blowout win over the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor.
For as impressive as the Trojans’ offense has been with Miller Moss at the helm, that win over LSU is already looking like it may mean a little less than the vast majority initially thought.
The Tigers nearly lost to South Carolina in Week 3 and probably would have if not for multiple controversial calls. LSU’s defense is just 68th in SP+ and Michigan is a whole other animal.
The Wolverines defense is fourth in SP+ and has multiple potential first-round picks like Will Johnson, Mason Graham, and Kenneth Grant.
That group should be able to keep it close against a Trojans offense that hasn’t seen a secondary or defensive line as talented as what Michigan is going to deploy.
It’s also safe to assume with Alex Orji named the new starter, the Wolverines will lean heavily on their run game. Orji’s a dynamic athlete who was on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List for good reason.
He along with Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings give Michigan an offense that should be capable enough of controlling the clock to keep its defense fresh and Moss and Co. off the field.
And for as much as USC’s defense looks like it has improved under D’Anton Lynn, it’s still just 70th in SP+.
With an expanded run game and a dominant defense, Michigan will keep this close in a losing effort. Although, SP+ is projecting a 30-26 win for the Wolverines.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 46.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
In a battle of two teams that were among the worst P4 defenses while having top-tier offenses last year, USC beat LSU 27-20 in Week 1 this year.
I have a hard time seeing this matchup ending up with the same total or higher as that one. Michigan is all about running the ball, which chews the clock, and it’s struggled to consistently score this year thanks to its poor passing attack.
The Wolverines are 57th in SP+ and Orji is making his first career start. Predominantly used as a wildcat QB throughout his career, Orji’s only attempted seven passes in three seasons with Michigan.
Even an iffy USC defense should be able to contain the Wolverines and keep them from scoring more than 20 points. They’re averaging just 23.3 this season, and that’s after playing two G5 programs, along with Texas.
And on the flip side of the matchup, USC certainly has the talent to put up points, but Michigan’s D-line is loaded. Graham, Grant, Derrick Moore, and Josiah Stewart should be able to put more pressure on Moss than any team he’s played in his three starts.
It only makes matters tougher on him that Johnson is arguably the country’s top cornerback and the linebacker duo of Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham is one of the best in the Big Ten.
I don’t expect this total to see much movement, but I wouldn’t bet the Under if it dips to below 45.5.
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USC vs Michigan live odds
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